Text Products for FWS Issued by AMA

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FNUS74 KAMA 161908
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Sanford-Yake Rx...National Park Service
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
208 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Winds will be fairly weak and southerly through all
of Wednesday. The RH near the water will be slightly higher
than surrounding areas by roughly 5%. So expect less favorable
burn conditions near the water and better burn conditions further
away from the lake. A dry cold front will pass through the burn
area during the mid morning hours of Thursday which will shift the
wind direction to the N and cause gusty winds. This front will
also cause the RH to be much higher through the whole day.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (97400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............64     72     78     81
RH..............43     33     25     21
20 ft wind......S 6    SE 8   S 10   S 12
20 ft wind gust.11     13     14     18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6    4.2    6.3    8.0
Transport wind..SE 12  S 15   S 13   S 14
Haines index....3      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16     54     68     96
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    west around 12 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 22 to 23 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (97200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............83     78     69     65     63     60
RH..............18     20     28     31     32     35
20 ft wind......SW 10  S 10   S 9    S 10   SW 10  W 9
20 ft wind gust.18     12     14     14     14     13
Mix hgt (kft)...6.5    4.0    0.5    0.5    0.6    0.7
Transport wind..SW 17  SW 17  S 15   S 17   SW 21  NW 23
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..97     60     6      7      10     14
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 26 mph shifting to the north 14 to 18
                    mph with gusts to around 29 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 18 to 23 gusts to 32 mph shifting to the
northeast 16 to 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............57     57     60     63     67     69
RH..............40     46     51     47     41     37
20 ft wind......W 13   NW 15  N 18   N 17   N 16   N 14
20 ft wind gust.19     22     29     28     26     23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1    1.8    2.7    3.2    3.7    4.2
Transport wind..NW 23  N 25   N 26   N 22   N 18   NE 16
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22     40     62     61     58     59
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Hannah
Requested by...Jason McDaniel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411124.0/AMA
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
