Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall: A surface low
pressure center and a cold front are forming along the Texas
coast this morning. The low pressure is forecast to track
eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico today and then NE and
inland across the southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. Fresh to
strong SE winds developing offshore of Florida this morning will
expand eastward in aerial coverage ahead of the cold front that
will enter the western waters Sat afternoon, and reach from near
31N72W to central Cuba by Sun morning. Southerly gale-force winds
are expected to develop across the northern waters, ahead of the
front this evening through Sun. Strong to near gale NW to N winds
and large NE swell will follow this front Sun before winds begin
to shift N to NE. Additionally, widespread showers and strong
thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected to develop
across the SE Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida this afternoon
and shift eastward across southern Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba and
the adjacent waters Fri night through Sat evening. Mariners
should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their
routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

In addition, please refer to bulletins and advisories issued by
your local Meteorological Agency for information on the expected
heavy rainfall in your area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 02.5N30W.
The ITCZ continues from 02.5N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is observed from 00N to 07N E of 24W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 00N to
05N between 24W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the upcoming
heavy rain event.

A warm front has developed from the SE Gulf to the central Texas
coast, where low pressure of 1009 mb is forming. The pressure
gradient between this boundary and higher pressure over the
western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds
within 150 nm N of the front, where scattered moderate to strong
convection is ongoing. Earlier scatterometer data showed winds to
30 kt within this zone of strong winds, with potentially higher
winds in convection. Altimeter and buoy data also showed seas of 6
to 9 ft in this zone as well. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
mainly E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, developing low pressure over eastern Texas is
forecast to move E across the northern Gulf today then NE and
inland across the southeastern U.S. Fri night through Sat. A
trailing cold front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, reach
from Mobile Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri evening, and exit
the basin to the SE late Sat afternoon. Strong to near
gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front
today, with fresh to strong northerly winds spilling across the
basin well behind the front Fri night through Sat. Widespread
showers and strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are
expected across central through SE portions of the Gulf through
this evening, ahead of the low center and the cold front. High
pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward from
late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong
southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf, ahead of the
next cold front. Strong southerly winds will shift to the central
and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as a cold front moves
enters the western Gulf early Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure well N of the area, over the western Atlantic
extends a ridge southward to a dissipating frontal boundary along
20N and into northern Hispaniola. Fresh trades are ongoing in the
south-central Caribbean south of 13.5N, through the Windward
Passage, and across the Gulf of Honduras, with mainly moderate
trades elsewhere. Seas are moderate in the central and SW basin
and across the Gulf of Honduras, with slight seas in the eastern
and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure across the NW Atlantic will shift
E-NE and strengthen through the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds will develop across the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan
Channel this morning as low pressure enters the NW Gulf of Mexico
and tracks E. The low will move NE and into the SE U.S. Fri night
through Sat, with an attendant cold front reaching the Yucatan
Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean Sat afternoon. The
front will then reach from the Windward Passage to the Honduras-
Nicaragua border Sun evening, before stalling and dissipating on
Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over the western
Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system
entering the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the upcoming
western Atlantic Gale warning and heavy rain event.

A cold front extends from near 31N50W southwestward to 23.5N58W,
where it transitions to a decaying stationary front to the
northern coast of Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are observed moving eastward ahead and along the
front north of 24N and east of 54W. Moderate to fresh NE to N
winds are occurring north of the front to 70W. Moderate seas of 5
to 8 ft are noted over these waters. Broad high pressure
dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic northwest of the
frontal boundary, where fresh E to SE winds generally prevail W of
70W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in mixed swell across this area.

A strong 1034 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues
to be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE to E
winds north of 17N and east of 45W. Rough seas of 7 to 12 ft are
found over these waters. Moderate trades and moderate seas are
observed across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure centered along the
middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. will shift E-NE and strengthen
through the weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
E of Florida today, as low pressure tracks eastward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico, and then inland across the southeastern
U.S. Fri night. Strong southerly winds will expand in coverage
over the western waters, ahead of a cold front, increasing to
gale-force across the northern waters Fri evening through Sun. The
front will exit NE Florida Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N72W
to central Cuba on Sun morning, from 31N64W to the Windward
Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE
across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters through Tue.
Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will
follow the front Sun through Mon.

$$
Stripling


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.