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000
FXUS61 KBGM 121044
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
644 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, along with gusty
winds, will persist through the early morning hours. Another
round of rain showers will move in tonight along with more
gusty winds lasting into Saturday morning. Rain may mix with
snow late Friday night into Saturday morning as cooler air
returns briefly for the weekend. A warming trend is expected to
return again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
347 AM Update...

Surface analysis places a 986mb low west of Toronto, with a warm
front banked up against the Adirondacks, placing our entire CWA in
the warm sector with gusty SE winds. Surface dewpoints are mostly in
the upper-50s, but some lower-60s readings are nosing into NEPA and
parts of the Southern Tier of NY. Not coincidentally, this is where
the 3 hour rainfall amounts have been highest outside the higher
terrain, generally around 0.25 inches. Higher amounts can be found
east of the Poconos, where gauges indicate over a half inch of rain
has fallen in the past 3 hours. This might be concerning if it were
continuing, but a narrow dry slot is moving into the area, bringing
a break in the shower coverage.

A convective line of showers extends just ahead of a cold front
across western NY into parts of Central PA. This is expected to
weaken somewhat as it rotates up towards the Finger Lakes region,
though additional heavier convective showers are expected to
redevelop over eastern portions of the CWA as a shortwave trough
lifts up from the southwest and the cold front continues to push
east.

We will need to keep an eye on rainfall in the Poconos and Catskills
later this morning for any short-fuse hydro concerns, but so far the
break in precip is helping in that regard.

Overall, expect periods of rain showers to continue through the
morning, with some breaks. Showers will mainly lift north of the
area, with drier conditions prevailing by around Midday into the
early afternoon, after which isolated showers will begin cropping up
again, especially across the Finger Lakes and NEPA.

High temperatures for the day will be set this morning, generally in
the lower-60s, falling off into the 50s slowly through the day.

Wrap-around rain showers will become more numerous overnight, as
colder air moves in. Rain will mix with snow at times after
midnight, and some higher elevation areas south and southwest of the
Finger Lakes could see an inch or so of wet snow accumulation on
grassy surfaces by Saturday morning, though impacts will be minimal.
Elsewhere, snow accumulation is not expected. Showers will change
back over to all rain during the day Saturday.

Gusty SE winds, which have topped 35 mph at times overnight, will
diminish to around 15 to 25 mph this afternoon as they shift to the
southwest. Winds will increase again late tonight into early
Saturday, with gusts possibly pushing 40 mph across the Thruway
corridor Saturday morning as a low level jet axis moves overhead.
Gusts could come close to advisory criteria, but will let the day
shift reevaluate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update...

A shortwave is expected to move across the area on Sunday,
bringing chances for rain showers in the morning, and chances
for elevated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chances for
elevated thunderstorms will likely stay in the southern portions
of the forecast area; more specifically NE PA, where low level
warm air and moisture convection allow for surface-based CAPE to
develop over Pennsylvania. Temperatures will continue the
warming trend, with high temperatures in the mid-50s to low-60s
in Central NY, and low- to mid-60s for NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
350 AM Update...

Monday will be quiet weather-wise, with the warming trend
continuing. The next system will bring its warm front through
the forecast area Tuesday, with chances for rain showers from
Tuesday afternoon and through Wednesday. Chances for elevated
thunderstorms increase on Wednesday afternoon. Rain showers will
continue from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. The warming
trend will continue, with Thursday being the warmest day of the
forecast period; warming up to the high-60s to mid-70s. A cold
front moves through the area Friday, dropping temperatures to
the low- to mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bands of rain showers will continue to impact the region through
the mid-morning hours, with flight categories generally MVFR to
fuel alternate, though some brief periods of VFR have been
noted. Visibility could drop 3 to 4SM in heavier showers.
Isolated thunder remains possible, but probabilities remain too
low for mention in the TAFs.

Most areas will see a break in precip starting around 15-16Z,
with improving conditions (generally MVFR), but isolated
showers will redevelop in the afternoon, and particularly in the
evening as wrap-around precip moves in. Precip looks to stay all
rain through 06Z Sat. Flight categories look to drop back to
fuel alternate levels again.

SE winds may gust to around 30 knots early this morning, before
shifting to the SW and slowly diminishing. SW winds will become
westerly and increase again late tonight into Saturday morning,
with gusts over 30 knots possible again through early Saturday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday...Possible restrictions from rain showers, mixing with
snow showers early in the morning. Gusty winds continue.

Sunday...Chance for rain showers and possible restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPH