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000
FXUS63 KBIS 141755
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorms likely early this week, turning to
  snow chances in the north Wednesday to Friday night.

- Expect breezy to windy conditions every day this week.

- Colder temperatures Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

No major changes were needed for this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 926 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A quiet morning continues across western and central North
Dakota. For this update, just blended in the latest observations
to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Updated sky cover to delay the forecasted high clouds moving
into the northwest this morning. Otherwise the forecast is still
on track to be another great day to enjoy the outdoors.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Surface high pressure and a shortwave ridge is leading to clear
skies and calm winds this morning. The high pressure will move
east to west across the state today, with low pressure moving in
behind. This will create breezy winds in the southwest from the
pressure gradient between the two pressure systems. Fire weather
is also a smaller concern today, but RH`s will still be very low
in the 20s. Today won`t be as warm as yesterday but still
mainly in the 70s. We used the NBM 50th percentile to raise
temperatures, especially in the southwest where a nice thermal
ridge moves over today. Yesterday we over preformed the NBM with
highs getting into the lower 80s, so that is why we raised
temperatures today.

The big low pressure system will move through the western CONUS
today, and start affecting us this evening when flow turns
southwest. A slight chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm are
possible in the north and west while the shortwave ridge moves
through. Once the ridge is through tonight, the chances for
showers and thunderstorms goes up as the low pressure will be on
the east side of the Rockies. Southerly diffluent flow will
exist over the state Monday and Monday night. CAPE values Monday
morning through the day look to be around 300-500 J/kg with a
good amount of shear to produce thunderstorms. Non-severe
storms are expected with that low of CAPE. The SPC has the
marginal risk ending on the South Dakota side of the North
Dakota South Dakota border Monday. The CAMs have the most
aggressive storms developing in western SD and traveling north,
so we might get the leftover storms from SD that may or may not
be severe late Monday evening. This is when the chance for
storms looks the greatest with the CAPE and shear. On the far
southern end of this system in Oklahoma, severe storms are
likely, so they might take some energy from getting up here for
our storms. Total QPF through the week is just shy of 0.50
inches in the west to just over an inch in the south and east.
This will be some much needed moisture with the lack of snow
this winter.

Tuesday another upper low develops to the northwest of this low,
creating a double low that will impact us all week. Winds will
be breezy to windy all week with tight pressure gradient winds,
and cold air advection starting Wednesday. Wednesday is when
the second low drops in from Canada, lower temperatures to the
30s and 40s, with lows overnight in the 20s. A cold front will
also sweep through west to east. So a chance of snow is possible
the rest of the week, mainly north of Highway 2.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Overnight
tonight and into Monday morning, expect a few showers (and maybe
a brief thunderstorm or two) to develop somewhere across the
south central and into the James River Valley. Exact placement
of this precipitation is very uncertain at this time so will
refrain from mentioning the prevailing potential at any one
specific site for now. Winds will start to become gusty out of
the southeast mid to late Monday morning, lasting through the
day. Some enhanced low level wind shear will also be possible
at KXWA overnight and into Monday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...ZH