092
FXUS64 KBMX 301832
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
132 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024

A weak surface front continues to move southeast across Central
Alabama, with showers and a few storms now located along and
southeast of a line from Clanton to Wedowee. The upper level
trough axis and shortwave is also departing off to the east, which
will allow drier air at 700mb to move in from the northwest this
afternoon. Although we have some stubborn low clouds to still deal
with in the meantime, those should finally mix out by this
afternoon. With mostly sunny conditions, highs will range from the
upper 70s in the northeast counties to the lower 80s in the far
southwest. Rain chances will hold on a little longer through the
late afternoon hours in the far southeast counties and finally
move out of the area this evening.

We won`t see much of a change in airmass overall following the
departing system as we go into the overnight hours tonight. This
will set the stage for an ideal fog development scenario with
mostly clear skies, calm winds, and dewpoints holding in the 60s
along and south of I-20. Areas of fog have been added to the
forecast as a result, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed if
current guidance trends hold up. Lows will only drop into the
upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations. Upper level ridging will
take place during the day on Wednesday, which will lead to very
warm, almost summer-like temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
under mostly sunny skies.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024

No major changes needed in the forecast for the second half of the
week and through the weekend. Several rounds of at least scattered
showers/thunderstorms are possible over the weekend. Temperatures
will be notably warmer than we`ve seen so far this season with
highs Thursday getting close or hitting 90 for much of the area.
Highs will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s through early
next week with a few low 80s possible across the area depending on
timing and coverage of rain each day.

25/Owen

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2024

Mid-level ridging extending from the Gulf through the eastern
CONUS Thursday will result in above normal temperatures for early
May. A convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moves in from the west
late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Mid-level moisture
increases but low-levels remain fairly dry, so will only include
low chances for showers in the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft
will then set up for the rest of the period, north/northeast of
subtropical ridging building over Mexico and the southwestern
Gulf. Various weak shortwaves emanating from the Southern Plains
combined with above normal PWATs for this time of year will result
in at least isolated to scattered showers and storms each day,
highest chances north further removed from the ridge. A bit more
coverage will be possible Friday afternoon and Friday night across
the far north as a cold front stalls to our north and then lifts
back to the north.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2024

Stubborn IFR to MVFR clouds have lingered at a few terminals
through the early afternoon hours, but will finally mix out to VFR
later this afternoon. In addition, scattered SHRA will be possible
at MGM and TOI through the afternoon as well, with isolated TSRA
activity. For now, have only included VCSH for those locations,
with low confidence of TSRA being close enough to affect terminals
at this time. The next aviation challenge will come overnight
tonight, as ideal fog development conditions appear to be setting
up. Went ahead and added in reduced vis in a majority of
terminals, with the most widespread fog across eastern and
southeastern portions of Central Alabama. Amendments can be
expected based on the latest guidance and observation trends
through the evening. VFR conditions are expected on Wednesday
after fog mixes out through 14z. Light or variable winds are
expected through the period.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and a few storms will continue through the morning. The
rain should exit east Alabama by sunset tonight. 20 foot winds
will become west 6-8 mph today. Rain free conditions Wednesday
and Thursday with RH values dropping into the 30s. 20 foot winds
will be from north around 3-6 mph on Wednesday. the Another round
of wetting rains return on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  85  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    59  85  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  61  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  87  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      61  85  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      63  85  63  87 /  10   0   0  10
Montgomery  63  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        62  87  61  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...56