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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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000
FNUS71 KBOX 212254
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for MAS DCR-RX-FD0902...Massachusetts Bureau of Forest Fire Control and
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
654 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 EDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.


.DISCUSSION...

...Southeast Franklin County...

Dry and sunny conditions at the spot location for Monday afternoon.
Steady northwest winds through the day with sustained speeds
between 5 and 10 knots during the afternoon. Gusts should be
limited to 10 to 15 knots. Deep mixing with mixing heights between
5500 and 6000 feet between late morning and about 5pm. Thereafter,
Mixing heights fall to under 1000 feet by 8PM as the atmosphere
begins to cool due to loss of day time heating. Very dry with
MinRH values between 20 and 25 percent.



.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Patchy frost early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Dewpoint............25 decreasing to 17.
Min apparent temp...28.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (86700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................18 increasing to 42 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 73 early increasing to 83 late in
                    the morning decreasing to 62 to 68 increasing
                    to 67 to 76 in the afternoon increasing to 95.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......23.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   5   7   10  13  16  13  10  7   6   4   3
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............34  35  39  41  44  47  50  52  52  55  55  55
Dewpoint........26  27  26  24  22  20  19  18  17  17  17  17
RH..............72  72  59  50  41  34  29  26  25  22  22  22
Heat index (F)..28  28  33  36  39  43  46  52  52  55  55  55
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.12  12  13  13  14  14  15  15  16  15  14  13
Surface wnd dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.7   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   10  9   9   8
Surface wnd gst.12  12  13  13  14  14  15  15  16  15  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.4 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   NW  NW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  14  17  17  15  15  16  17  17  16  15  14
LVORI...........3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............18  42  73  83  62  63  68  76  75  71  67  95
Haines index....3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12  29  52  61  63  68  77  86  87  83  79  75
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  23  24  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear. Patchy frost after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Dewpoint............20.
Min apparent temp...30.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 13 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 5 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (44400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................61 decreasing to 2 to 5.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........3      2      1      1      2      3
Weather cov.....                     PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   FROST  FROST  FROST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............52     45     40     36     33     30
Dewpoint........19     22     22     22     22     22
RH..............27     40     48     56     63     72
Heat index (F)..52     43     38     33     33     30
20 ft wind......NW 7   W 5    NW 3   W 3    SW 2   S 2
20 ft wind gust.12     8      7      6      5      5
Surface wind....NW 7   W 5    NW 3   W 3    SW 2   S 2
Surface wnd gst.12     8      7      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....4200   500    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 13  W 8    W 7    W 6    W 5    SW 5
LVORI...........1      2      2      3      3      4
ADI.............61     4      3      3      2      2
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..44     4      3      2      1      1
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     25     25

$$
Forecaster...RM
Requested by...Dave Celino
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411642.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.celino@mass.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
