755
FXUS64 KBRO 051935
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

While SPC continues to place much of Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley in a general thunderstorm outlook for today, the
atmospheric conditions are not favorable for showers and
thunderstorms. Based on the morning sounding there is a strong cap
that will prevent showers and thunderstorms from forming and the
upper levels of the atmosphere are still very dry. While the
surface flow from the southeast allows for plenty of moisture to
move into the region, it will not be enough to overcome the cap
and the dry air. As such the short term forecast period is
currently expected to be rain free.

The main story for the short term forecast will be the above
normal temperatures. The high temperatures for tomorrow are
expected to be mostly in the 90s, with the western parts of the
area getting into the upper 90s. With skies expected to be party
cloudy in the morning then turning to mostly by late in the
morning, there is not much in terms of relief from the heat during
the day. Meanwhile, areas along the coast and the beaches will be
in the 80s. On the other hand, the overnight low temperatures for
tonight and Monday night are expected to be in the 70s. Skies are
expected to become more cloudy during the evening tonight and
Monday night.

For those going to the beach, moderate seas will continue to
produce a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Heat will become more problematic in the long term. Temperatures
have been running around 5 degrees above average lately, but
differences from average Tuesday through Thursday could increase
to a positive 10 degrees. A dryline will set up shop to the west,
never really penetrating very far into the CWA, but at the same
time moderate to fresh southeast breezes will pump high dew point
(in the 70s) air inland, placing an upward stress on heat index
values.

The mid-level pattern will remain rather zonal most of the week,
but ridging will become more apparent heading into next weekend.
Weather systems will thus, for the most part, avoid this part of
the world through the week, yielding a dry forecast. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies will generally prevail, with increased
sunshine taking over each afternoon. Marginal heat advisory
conditions could develop Tuesday, Wednesday, and again Thursday
afternoons for portions of the CWA. Though high temperatures will
hit triple digits over inland sections Tuesday through Thursday,
heat index values will be tempered a bit by drier air. Wildfire
fuels are in transition (drying trend), but do not see any obvious
fire weather threat days just yet. Relative humidity values will
be in the teens and 20s out west Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons, but winds will be a skosh too light for critical fire
weather thresholds. Nonetheless, some enhanced wildfire growth and
spread will be possible.

A cold front will push into the area late next Thursday ahead of
the building weekend ridge, with increasing clouds late, and that
could be enough to trigger convection moving out of the Sierra
Madre Orientals and into the Upper Valley late Thursday evening
lingering into Friday. Scattered showers may persist into Friday
as the front pushes offshore. By Saturday morning a coastal trough
will form with a warm front extending out from there into the
Gulf. Though the warm front will lose definition through Saturday,
a second cold front will push south over Texas on Sunday
providing a broader coverage of showery precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to be the main trend for the TAF cycle
at all TAF sites. While some breaks in the ceilings will allow
for VFR ceilings for short periods of time, they are not expected
to last very long. Light southeasterly winds are expected to
continue through the period as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...Light to moderate southeasterly
winds and moderate seas are expected to persist along the Lower
Texas Coast. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected
to occur though Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday night...Moderate to fresh southeast breezes
will prevail through the long term. With those winds will come
moderate to occasionally higher wave heights. Thus, expect here
and there small craft should exercise caution to low end small
craft advisory conditions. Synoptically, high pressure over the
North Gulf will interact with lower pressure upstream to maintain
a gradient supportive of moderate to fresh winds. Winds will shift
to northeast on Friday once a cold front pushes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  90  78  92 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               75  93  75  96 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  95  78  97 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  97  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  83  78  83 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     75  88  76  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...64-Katz