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000
FXUS64 KBRO 241734 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key Messages:

* Breezy and adverse marine conditions developing Thursday
* A High Risk for Rip Currents is in effect for Thursday

Dry weather conditions will persist through the short-term forecast
period due to continued influences of a surface pressure system over
the northern Gulf. A 500 mb ridge axis will move overhead today
before shifting east of the forecast area on Thursday. This will
allow for near normal temperatures to continue over the region with
daytime highs today and Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s (cooler
near/along the coast).

The main weather development during the short-term forecast period
will be the development of strong southeast winds beginning on
Thursday. Computer models continue to advertise a strengthening
surface pressure gradient taking shape on Thursday with low pressure
systems over north-central Mexico and a surface high over the Gulf
of Mexico. This will result in strengthening boundary layer winds
out of the southeast developing during the day on Thursday. Winds
are expected to be strongest later in the day on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Generally dry and tranquil weather will prevail through the long
term period. A couple of mid to upper level short waves will swing
over the Plains Friday and Saturday night into Sunday. At the
surface, high pressure across the region will interact with a series
of low pressure systems moving across the Plains. The tight pressure
gradient accompanying the aforementioned pattern will maintain
strong southeast to south winds, especially for Friday and Saturday.
Friday and Saturday will be breezy to windy and could reach wind
advisory criteria over the eastern third or so of the CWA, each
afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected to continue across the
area on Sunday. Rain-free conditions are expected through the
weekend. Rain chances are expected to increase early next week due
to convection from the Sierra Madre Oriental. Showers and
thunderstorms are in the forecast staring Monday afternoon and night.

Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through the
period. Highs each afternoon should range from the 80s near the
coast to around the mid 90s across the Rio Grande Plains under a mix
of sun and clouds. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the low
to mid 70s each night.

High Risk of Rip Currents will be likely Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites this afternoon.
MVFR ceilings are forecast to return tonight, approaching IFR
levels by sunrise Thursday morning. Southeasterly winds are
expected to continue through the period. Wind gusts this afternoon
are expected to diminish this evening, with gusts returning late
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today through Thursday...Light to moderate seas and moderate winds
are expected to continue through today. A strengthening pressure
gradient on Thursday will result in strong southeasterly winds
developing. This ultimately will result in adverse marine conditions
developing as early as Thursday with building seas and heightened
rip current risk. That said, a High Risk for Rip Current Statement
has been issued along the island beaches beginning Thursday morning
and persisting into Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Monday...Ongoing adverse conditions are
expected through much of the forecast period. Strong southeast winds
will prevail Friday through Saturday, courtesy of interaction
between Plains low pressure and higher pressure across the West
Gulf. Small Craft Advisories will likely continue on the Laguna
Madre through Saturday. Small craft should exercise caution
conditions are expected to develop Saturday night and continue
through Monday as winds moderate to fresh. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be likely on the Gulf through the period due to
strong winds and high seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  74  86  76 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               89  71  89  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  74  90  75 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  74  80  75 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  73  85  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...60-BE