003
FXUS61 KBUF 301414
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1014 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will make its way across the region this
afternoon and evening while generating some showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be
east of the Genesee valley. fair dry weather will then return later
tonight and persist through at least Friday morning. Temperatures
will remain solidly above normal for the foreseeable future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A negatively tilted mid level trough will exit the Upper Great Lakes
to central Ontario this afternoon...while an associated cold front
will slowly cross our forecast area through the first half of
tonight. While there will be a few more hours of enjoyable sunshine
over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions...clouds have
already thickened ahead of the front across the western counties. In
fact as of late morning...showers are blossoming over the far
western counties.

The showers will become more widespread during the midday and
afternoon...and with the help of some diurnally induced
instability...there may even be a few thunderstorms. The greatest
chance for any storms will be east of the Genesee valley with any
storm having the potential of producing locally heavy rain to the
tune of a half inch. Otherwise...basin average rainfall should be a
tenth of an inch or less.

The showers will taper off from west to east late this afternoon and
evening. While the showers will come to an end...a light flow aloft
will enable much of the cloud cover to persist for the greater part
of tonight. The exception to this will be across the Southern Tier
where clearing seen on VSB/IR imagery over northwest Ohio should
make its way into the area.

The clearing will continue Wednesday morning...as a progressive mid
level shortwave ridge and associated weak sfc high will cross our
forecast area. The fair dry weather on Wednesday will be
accompanied by max temps that will range from the mid 60s across the
Eastern Lake Ontario region to the low and mid 70s over the western
counties.

A compact shortwave will pass by to our north Wednesday night. This
will drive a moisture starved cold front through our region with
nothing more than patchy clouds and subtle wind shift to mark the
occasion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure centered to our north will nose southwards across
the region on Thursday. This will support fair dry weather
Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing north
across the Upper Midwest into Ontario, Canada on Friday.
Bountiful warm moist air will continue to advect into the region
Friday, where a few afternoon showers will be possible.

As this surface low continues to progress northward across Canada,
its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east
across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday. There continues
to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held
PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes
Sunday night thorugh Monday, causing any lingering showers to
gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this morning with cigs trending
down to MVFR then IFR. An upstream cold front will slowly cross the
region today with periodic light to moderate showers. A few
thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is low in coverage and
location.

Outlook...

Tonight...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure
gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or
less. There will periodic showers or thunderstorms today before
dry weather returns for the mid week period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA