356
FXUS62 KCAE 060014
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
814 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the early
this week as multiple disturbances move across the region. A
lull in activity is anticipated for midweek, with increasing
chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week.
Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter
half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below
average next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Isolated convection still in progress, with some new
development recently over the Central Midlands along an outflow
boundary. Latest guidance and current trends suggest a slight
chance POP is in order through late evening or early tonight.
Some new development possible ahead of an approaching upper
disturbance either late tonight or early tomorrow over the NW
FA. Lows in the 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Tennessee
Valley into the Southeast through the day, bringing another
round of shower and thunderstorm activity to the area. This
shortwave looks be a bit deeper than the one passing on Sunday,
which will likely result in more areal coverage of thunderstorms
than Sunday afternoon. Moisture remains on the high side as the
airmass overhead hasn`t really changed all that much over the
past couple of days. PWATs of over 1.5` are expected throughout
the day with an uptick ahead of the incoming shortwave. Forecast
soundings indicate that much of the atmospheric column will be
well saturated, which would lead to the potential for locally
heavy rain and potential for urban flooding with the activity.
While CAPE values are forecast to be around 1000 J/kg or so, a
lack of shear limits the severe weather potential. Temperatures
are expected to be near or slightly above average during the day
and relatively warm overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shortwave ridging aloft on Tuesday helps to limit shower
activity for the day; however, a weak shortwave trough is
forecast to pass over the area. This could bring some isolated
shower or thunderstorm activity in the afternoon, mainly for the
eastern portions of the forecast area. The ridging then
continues through midweek, allowing for a warming trend and a
brief respite in activity ahead of the next incoming trough and
associated front. Depending on the timing of the upper trough
and cold front moving toward the area, some stronger storms
could be possible for Thursday afternoon as increased moisture,
instability, and shear may be in place. The chances of
precipitation continues for Friday as well before drying out for
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the period but
possible restrictions in morning stratus/fog and with scattered
convection Monday afternoon.

Afternoon convection has generally waned although there are some
isolated storms moving into the CSRA which may affect AGS/DNL
but for now left out of the forecast and will amend as needed.
Some scattered clouds expected overnight increasing a bit during
the predawn hours with some stratus cloud development possible.
There is not as strong a signal as in previous nights so will
carry prevailing VFR cigs but have restrictions in a tempo
group from around 10-15z. Stratus seems more favored than fog
given a 25 knot low level jet.

Isolated to scattered convection is expected again on Monday
with a shortwave moving through the region but confidence in
impacts to the terminals not high enough this far out to
include at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Fog and stratus restrictions become
less likely on Tuesday and Wednesday as drier air moves into
the region. Chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection
with associated restrictions each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$