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000
FXUS62 KCAE 240711
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
311 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temps will rebound to near normal today, ahead of a front that
will come through this afternoon and evening, providing a slight
chance of showers. Fair Thursday and Friday, except for a
slight chance of a shower over western areas Friday afternoon.
Fair Saturday through Monday with a warming trend. A cold front
is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through daybreak skies will remain mostly clear with some cirrus
drifting across the region and south-southwesterly winds around
5 mph. With the wind keeping the atmosphere a bit more mixed
than last night temperatures will be several degrees warmer with
overnight lows generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Situation will change today as the southwesterly winds continue
to push slightly more moisture into the area as a weak front
approaches from the northwest. The front will move into the
western Midlands during the mid afternoon then push through the
eastern Midlands and southern CSRA around midnight. Moisture and
dynamics with this front are limited and 850 mb flow will be
westerly which will also limit showers and rainfall amounts.
Lapse rates between 850 and 500 mb will struggle to reach
6.0 C/Km and CAPE generally less than 250 J/Kg do not expect any
thunder just scattered showers mainly in the northern and central
Midlands. Rainfall amounts will also be limited with locations
which get the showers receiving less than one tenth of an inch
and likely only a couple hundredths. With the southerly flow
pushing some warmer air into the area expect high temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80. The front will move offshore
during the early morning hours with skies beginning to clear
behind the front and winds turning northerly starting to bring a
bit cooler and drier air to the area. This will produce
overnight lows ranging from the around 50 in the western
Midlands to the mid 50s in the eastern Midlands and CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will ridge down the Eastern Seaboard into
our region Thursday behind the front which appears will stall
to our south. Current indications are that any precip associated
with the front will stay to our south Thursday. Slightly cooler
temps Thursday due to some weak cool air advection.

Surface high pressure axis to generally remain over our vicinity
Friday, with the old front stalled just to our south and west. An
upper ridge axis will shift east over the region. GFS/EC ensemble
means remain consistent in indicating some increasing moisture
and possibility of either some weak isentropic lift and/or
enough low level moisture convergence near the stalled front
which could promote some shallow showers developing in the
afternoon over western areas, aided by diurnal heating and an
upper impulse. SREF has now joined in, and even the lower NBM
POPs are trending up slightly. Decided to introduce a slight
chance POP Friday afternoon in the CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure axis to generally remain over our
Saturday through Monday, with upper ridging. Fair with a warming
trend. Upper ridge expected to shift offshore early next week,
with appearance of a cold front and associated precip chance
coming in Tuesday. NBM indicating slight chance POPs, which
seems fine for now given inherent uncertainty with the timing of
this feature this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Dry air remains in place across the area as increasing southerly
flow has begun gradually pushing moisture into the region. With
high pressure now off the coast a weak front will move into the
area from the northwest this afternoon and move offshore
tonight. The highest potential for any showers would be at
CAE/CUB between 21z and 25/03z however have remained without
mention as moisture with this front is limited. Winds will be
south-southwesterly at 5 knots or less through mid morning then
become westerly at 10-12 knots with gusts up to 18 knots
through fropa then turn northerly and decrease to around 5
knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$