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000
FXUS61 KCAR 152315
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
715 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE 1905L: SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRIGGERING A FEW SCTD SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS ATTM... SHOULD SHOULD WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE NXT FEW HRS W/ LOSS OF HEATING BUT BNDRY MAY KEEP
THEM GOING A BIT LONGER THAN ERLYR EXPECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. THIS BNDRY WILL STALL ACROSS SRN AREAS LATE TNGT/ERLY
SUN THEN ACT AS FOCUS FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRES TO LIFT ENEWRD FROM
THE GRT LAKES LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW NGT. OTHER THAN THE POPS
ADJUSTMENT...CURRENT FCST OTHERWISE LOOKS ON TRACK...

SCT SHWRS WILL CONT TO JUST BEFORE SUNSET ERLY THIS EVE...THEN
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HTG. SKIES WILL BECOME MCLR LATER
THIS EVE INTO THE FIRST PTN OF THE OVRNGT AS WINDS SUBSIDE WITH
DECREASING WINDS ALF AND A SLACKENING SFC PRES GRAD AS A WEAK
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO FCST LOWS USED
FROM LAST NGT`S UPDATE DUE TO POTENTIAL SLOWING OF FALLING OVRNGT
TEMPS OVR WRN VLYS DUE TO HI CLD ADVCMNT.

HI CLDNS THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE TNGT INTO ERLY SUN MORN AS
OVRRNG BEGINS ERLY OVR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRES
BEGINS TO APCH FROM THE GREAT LKS. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL TMG OF THICKER CLDS CVR LATER SUN MORN AND RNFL
ARRIVAL SUN AFTN...WITH THE 12Z OPNL GFS BEING MUCH FASTER THAN
MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL SUITE. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE TOOK A BLEND OF
OPNL MODELS FOR CLDS AND POPS ON SUN AND LENT MORE CREDENCE ON
THE SREF FOR QPF FOR THE 12-18Z AND 18-24Z PDS...WHICH DOES A GOOD
JOB SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER
ECMWF. THIS RESULTED IN US ALSO UNDERCUTTING HI TEMPS FROM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY THIS PD...WHICH REPRESENTS A MID PT HI TEMP FCST
FOR THE MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT
TERM AS A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE REGION.  A WEAK LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING WITH SHOWERS.  A STRONGER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS
BECOMES UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD TURN STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. WILL ADD
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON PM/EVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. TUE IS EXPECTED TO BE A COOLER AND MORE STABLE DAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THAT PERIOD. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH BUT KEEPS SYSTEM WELL
SOUTH OF MAINE. THAT WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHANGES IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION. BRIEF WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD TNGT INTO SUN MORN...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING
TO MVFR W TO E ACROSS THE TAF SITES SUN AFTN WITH THE ADVC OF RN
SHWRS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR AT TIMES SUN EVENING IN SHOWERS WITH MAINLY
VFR LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR MON NIGHT
INTO TUE IN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FOR WED THEN IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR TERM FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS...WITH AN ERLY SWELL COMPONENT ARND THE WRN END OF NOVA
SCOTIA PROV THRU TNGT...BEFORE WVS SUBSIDE BRIEFLY SUN MORN. BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE SLOWLY AGAIN SUN AFTN AS SFC
WINDS DEVELOP A SRLY FETCH.

SHORT TERM: AHEAD OF LOW PRES TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT THE SLY SWELL MAY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/VJN/CB