Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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972 FXUS61 KCAR 100532 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 132 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night. A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 132 AM Update: Mostly clear skies continue across the forecast area, though a few small patches of low level stratus can be seen on current Nighttime Microphysics RGB satellite product crossing through southern Aroostook county. Lowered min temperature forecasts slightly and adjusted sky forecasts based on these observations and trends. Previous discussion: Surface high pressure to the north ridges south across the region later tonight through Friday. Aloft, the upper trof across northern areas weakens tonight through Friday. Isolated showers are still possible this evening. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies early tonight with clouds then decreasing overnight. Generally expect partly sunny skies Friday. However, diurnal heating and the remnants of the upper trof could also help support an isolated afternoon shower. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast dependent on how rapidly clouds decrease overnight. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area Friday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak shortwave crosses the area Friday night and Saturday. Some isolated showers are possible with its passage. Lows Friday night should be a few degrees below normal, mainly from the mid 30s to around 40. Highs on Saturday should be around 5-10 degrees below normal, generally in the lower to mid 50s. Shortwave ridging then builds in Saturday night, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. Lows Saturday night should be a few degrees below normal. The models are in good agreement that a closed low forms as a trough pushes down into the eastern seaboard. However, they differ on exactly where this closed low is located. Depending on the location of this feature Sunday could be dry, or it could feature isolated to scattered showers. Given the large spread in model and ensemble solutions, have limited pops to slight chance. Highs will be very dependent on where this closed low tracks, for now going about 5 degrees below normal, but could see how those temperatures could be 5 degrees cooler or warmer than what is currently forecast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Model uncertainty remains the theme for the forecast Sunday night through Thursday, as differences in handling of the closed low early in the week, lead to differences in the timing and strength of ridging behind it and then when the system behind that ridging arrives. Given this uncertainty ran with slight chance to low end chance pops through the extended period. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal during this time frame, noting the temperature forecast is of below normal confidence for this time frame given the high degree of model spread. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: SKC to continue through the rest of the night, with cigs remaining VFR through the day on Friday even as afternoon cumulus develop. Winds light and variable through the rest of the night, becoming NE at 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. Cigs will likely remain VFR into Friday night with winds becoming light and variable once more, though increasing cloud cover from the south and east could lower towards MVFR late. SHORT TERM: Friday night-Tuesday...MVFR possible with any showers, otherwise VFR. Very low confidence on specific timing of any MVFR conditions during this time frame. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through Friday. SHORT TERM: A light pressure gradient over the waters Friday night through Monday night should limit sustained winds up to around 10 kt and seas up to 3 ft. The gradient should tighten somewhat on Tuesday with winds up to 15 kt and seas up to around 4 ft possible. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Maloit Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit