783
FXUS61 KCAR 101603
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1203 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday
night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday
night and Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Surface high pressure will ridge south across the region this
afternoon, while upper level troffing weakens. Generally expect
partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with diurnal
cloud development. Could also have just enough support with
diurnal heating and the remnants of the upper trof to support
very isolated afternoon showers. However, not enough confidence
to include showers in the forecast. Afternoon high temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 50s, locally around 60, across
the forecast area.

Previous Discussion...
Generally expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies tonight.
Tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The surface level trof should keep the low pressure to the
south over the waters on Saturday. RH models show the clouds
building in early making for a mostly cloudy day. This with the
cold pool should keep temps in the mid 50s across the region. By
the afternoon, upper air model soundings show instability
developing with lower CAPE values, but steep lapse rates.
Nevertheless, the warm air in the mid levels and the lack of
cool air to advect into the atmosphere, the chance of
thunderstorms is unlikely. Scatter showers are expected through
the afternoon and evening. By Saturday night, the upper level
trof over the Great Lakes will slowly move E. Clouds should keep
temps from in the upper 30s.

By Sunday, shortwave energy from the SW is expected to move into
the region bringing more moisture. The afternoon will bring more
instability, but the lack of lift will only bring convective
showers. By Sunday night, weak high pressure move in late to
help make for partly cloud skies.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A developing occlusion is excepted to move across Canada with
the triple point over New England on Monday and progress across
the region through Tuesday. The warm sector of the occlusion and
the warm front to the south is expected to bring a warming trend
throughout next week. Showers are expected on Tuesday and into
Wednesday. As the front moves through the area, there is a
slight chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday, but lack of
confidence in the timing of the track kept thunderstorms out of
the forecast for the time being. High pressure should return by
the end of the week.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region
this afternoon through tonight. Very isolated showers possible
this afternoon. However, MVFR conditions could begin to develop
across southeast areas late tonight. Northeast/east winds 5 to
10 knots this afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sat...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in rain showers.
Light E winds.

Sat night...VFR. Light ENE winds.

Sun-Sun night...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in afternoon rain
showers. Light and variable winds.

Mon-Tue...MVFR in rain showers. S winds 5-15 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this
afternoon through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions
through this time period.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/AStrauser
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash