Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
431 FGUS71 KCAR 151819 CCA ESFCAR MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-211615- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 219 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... This is the seventh Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the one week period of March 14th through March 21st, 2024. The potential for Ice Jams is Above Normal across the St. John and the Allagash Basin. Ice Jam potential is Above Normal on the Aroostook River below the Caribou Dam. Ice jam potential is over for the 2024 season on all other river basins. The potential for open water flooding is Normal across Downeast, East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and into Southern Aroostook County. The potential for open water flooding is Below Normal across the St. John River basin in Northern Maine. ...NORTHERN BASINS... OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Below Normal. SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. 12-18" of Snow in the Allagash to NW Aroostook. 6-12" from the Moosehead Region into the Upper Allagash Basin then St. John Valley. 1-6" from the Baxter Region into Eastern Aroostook County. 18-25" above 2,000ft in Baxter State Park. WATER EQUIVALENT: 0.5-2.5" with higher amounts. Below Normal. STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Above Normal for Mid March RIVER ICE: St. John has an Ice Jam at the Confluence with the Allagash River that is approx 2 miles long. It is mostly free and clear above Dickey Bridge. Mixed jumbled, open leads and cracks from Allagash/St. Francis townline downstream to St. John Plantation. Mainly open river from Fort Kent to Madawaska with some jumbled ice near Frenchville. Mostly clear to near Lille. Mainly frozen solid with some rot downstream of Lille to Van Buren and Hamlin. Allagash is opening up to above the town where a jam is near the USGS gage above the town. The Aroostook has approx 7 miles worth of ice (some sheet but mostly jumbled) above the Caribou Dam. The river is open from Caribou Dam to near the Fort Fairfield Route 1A Bridge. It is jammed from the bridge and extends Downstream to Tinker Dam in New Brunswick. Aroostook River above Presque Isle to Oxbow is mainly open. There remains ice in Oxbow upstream several miles that remain in place and continues to rot. The Meduxnekeag River has some ice remaining jumbled near the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians tribal lands due to previous ice jam upstream that shifted. ...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS... OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Normal. SNOW DEPTH: Zero to perhaps a trace in hardwoods. Well below normal. WATER EQUIVALENT: Zero. Well below normal. STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal. RIVER ICE: Very little ice remains with most stretches 100% ice free. ...DOWNEAST BASINS... OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Normal. SNOW DEPTH: Zero. Below Normal. WATER EQUIVALENT: Zero. Below Normal. STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal west, near Normal east. RIVER ICE: Very little ice remains with most stretches 100% ice free. ...LAKE ICE THICKNESS... Ice thickness is extremely variable with recent warm spells posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice safety visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be in graphical format on our website www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook ...FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER... The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (AO) teleconnections were both slightly negative while the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection was slightly positive. A positive PNA and negative NAO/AO combination promotes more ridging in the western CONUS with troughing across the eastern CONUS. All three indices are forecast to approach near neutral during the next two weeks with the Artic Oscillation (AO) remaining slightly negative. Thus, a somewhat less amplified and zonal pattern is anticipated with some transient troughing extending into the northeast. A split jet stream pattern will make individual low tracks and QPF impacts more challenging depending on timing and potential phasing. While the subtropical jet stream is still active there will be an opportunity for southern stream low system(s) to produce more significant precipitation if deeper moisture can approach...primarily across southern and eastern areas. A split jet stream pattern with less blocking would typically yield more seasonable temperatures on average with cold air intrusions brief. Due to the lack of areal snow cover and pre-greenup conditions, temperatures may be milder than typically expected. It currently appears the northern branch of the jet stream will remain more dominant across the Northeast along with the negative AO, allowing for a drier cooler pattern next week. However, there is the chance a deeper southern stream system may approach during week two. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks March 19-26 generally agree with average temperatures leaning normal short term to above normal long term and precipitation near normal short term leaning wetter than normal long term. $$ Sinko