Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 141739
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front stretches east across Illinois to Ohio from a low
pressure over northern Missouri. A wave of low pressure will
move across this front as it moves north today before a cold
front crosses the area tonight. High pressure will build into
the Midwest behind the front for Friday. A low pressure system
will dive southeast across the Great Lakes region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
935 AM Update...
Tailored the POPs to radar trends with the ongoing convection
to the west. Will be reevaluating the mesoscale environment for
the timing of the next wave expected this afternoon.


Previous Discussion...
A warm front extends into the forecast area this morning. Just
to the west in Indiana and Illinois, some thunderstorms have
developed near the front with the left exit region of the upper
level jet lifting north to provide that little extra lift for
some elevated convection. This complex should continue to
develop as elevated convection into Northwest Ohio and have PoPs
increasing to categorical for areas from Findlay to Sandusky
and northwest. Warm advection and increasing dew points across
the region this morning into the early afternoon should allow
for some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two to
develop across the area and have increasing PoPs through the
afternoon hours, but mostly just a chance extending east from
the known convection areas from this morning`s round.

The main show and concern for today though will be late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. A wave of low
pressure will advance east along the warm frontal boundary
across the forecast area. This will occur as a strengthening low
level jet enters the region. The surface low will then pull a
cold front across the forecast area tonight. There will be
plenty of forcing factors across the region to generate
thunderstorms. There will also be a fair amount of shear across
the region with sfc-3km SRH values approaching 300 m2/s2. The
problem for this event is that it seems that convection that
would develop would continue to remain relatively elevated with
a lesser chance to become surface based. This will be because of
a warm nose near the surface along with dew points only into the
50s that will keep the near surface layer relatively stable.
Any elevated convection will have a fairly sufficient hail
threat with MUCAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range and
generally supportive lapse rates. However, if something can
become more surface based, which may be later into the night,
there is enough in place across the region to allow for
opportunities for damaging wind gusts or even a tornado. The
best timing for a more potent round of convection will be from
around 5 PM to Midnight. Most of the area is in a Day 1 Marginal
Risk from the Storm Prediction Center with a portion of the
southwest forecast area in a Slight Risk for the increased hail
threat.

The cold front will move through the forecast area tonight and
rain chances will decrease fairly quickly and have axed PoPs
significantly from the previous forecast with at least
Northwest Ohio dry by daybreak on Friday, but suspect most of
the forecast area will be dry come Friday morning. Have PoPs
continuing to trend down through the day Friday to completely
dry. Temperatures will fall quickly with the cold front tonight
with most locations into the 40s. Temperatures on Friday will
struggle to warm at all with cold air advection into the region
and have stagnant highs in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Drier weather will return for Saturday as brief high pressure builds
into the region. Pressure gradient winds will allow for gusty,
southwest winds of 30 to 35 mph to develop in the afternoon and
evening, especially west of the I-71 corridor. Temperatures will
remain above average in the mid-50s on Saturday. However, rain
chances increase once again by Saturday night as low pressure system
slides southeast across the Upper and Eastern Great Lakes, extending
a cold front through the area and ushering in more normal
temperatures in the 40s for Sunday.

A much colder air mass will arrive behind this cold front, with
ensemble clustering in good agreement of 850 mb temperatures falling
between -10 to -12 degrees C late Sunday night. Lake-effect snow
showers should begin to develop across the snowbelt with the cold
air mass combined with primarily northwest boundary layer flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Below average temperatures are expected through the long term period
as lake-effect snow continues and expands on Monday into Tuesday.

An upper-level trough axis will swing southeast across the Eastern
Great Lakes on Monday, supplying more mid-level moisture to the
ongoing lake-effect snow across the snowbelt. Anticipate the entire
area will receive at least light snow showers at some point during
the day on Monday with an uptick in lake-effect snow intensity
across the snowbelt. The cold air mass should remain steady with the
trough passage, with 850 mb temperatures remaining around -12
degrees C into Tuesday.

Uncertainty in the forecast begins to creep in by later Tuesday and
Wednesday as some ensemble clusters reveal ridging trying to build
in from the west, while others keep a troughing regime in place
across the Eastern Great Lakes.

In terms of surface temperatures, highs will likely remain in the
30s with 20s expected at night. Temperatures may rebound into the
40s by Wednesday, though uncertainty in the overall pattern regime
begins to increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Timing of lines of showers and storms, and then subsequent
convective activity after the initial line is the biggest
challenge of the forecast. By using deterministic estimations,
some AMDs are possible if trends evolve slightly differently.
The western terminals MFD/TOL/FDY have the greater chance of
organized thunderstorms, but the threat further east is far from
zero. So the TAFs in that aforementioned area will have lower
visibilities and higher wind gust forecasts for the thunderstorm
hours, with some weakening of any of these storms further east.
Expecting ceilings to lower in the wake of the convection later
this evening and into tonight. Visibilities could come down as
well after 06Z tonight as flow turns northerly off Lake Erie.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in low ceilings continuing behind a
cold front on Friday and Friday night. Non-VFR possible in rain
showers Saturday night through Sunday before changing to snow
showers Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are expected until at least Saturday
evening/overnight when a cold front will cross the lake, ushering in
west to northwest flow near 20 knots when Small Craft conditions may
develop. Small Craft conditions may persist across the lake into
Tuesday, especially across the central and eastern basins of the
lake as west to northwest flow of 15 to 20 knots is expected to
persist.

A few stronger thunderstorms are possible today and tonight, with
gusty winds and large hail the primary threats.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...26/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Kahn


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