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000
FXUS61 KCTP 172233
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
633 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS FRI AND EXPECT THAT TO CARRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SFC HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

RADAR REMAINS CLEAR OF RETURNS OVER PA...BUT REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG THE HIER ELEVATION IN WV
AS MOISTURE SURGES NWD ON INCREASING SERLY FLOW. THUS CAN`T RULE
A STRAY SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT/LOW CHC
POPS OVER THE LAURELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT OVER SRN
BORDER. THE DEGREE OF INFLUENCE THE FILLING UPPER LOW COMING OUT
OF THE PLAINS WILL HAVE IS A TOUGH CALL. HOWEVER...GENERAL MDL
PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHRA S OF THE STATE.
CERTAINLY THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AND COULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH MINS IN THE N IN THE
M/U40S AND M50S. EXPECT LITTLE/NO WIND TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE WRN MTS FARTHER FROM THE AXIS OF THE
WEAKENING SFC RIDGE. THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN DOES BECOME MORE
E/SERLY LATER TONIGHT AND CERTAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP MAXES DOWN IN THE L70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW CU AGAIN ON
SAT...ESP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL START TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND WILL START TO BUILD UP LATER SAT NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MINS MILD. WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW CHC FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS THE MARITIME MSTR CLIMBS UPHILL SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
30-40 POPS S AND SLIGHT CHC N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SE FLOW WILL KEEP THE RISK OF LOWER CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LESS CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUE...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE
TO THE SW...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WARMER TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO WED.

HPC HAS FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON WED...NOT ALL THAT CLEAR CUT.
FOR WED...DID UP POPS SOME...BUT LEFT TEMPS UP.

COMPLEX SITUATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST
FEW DAYS.

FOR NOW...DID NOT RUSH CLEARING TOO MUCH BEFORE NEXT FRIDAY.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...AND LOW TRYS TO CLOSE OFF. GUSTY
NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY
FRIDAY...AS THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR WILL BE CENTRAL
CANADA...AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER THIS WEEK. A LOT DIFFERENT
THAN LAST YEAR...WHEN WE HAD HOT TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPSTATE NY LATE THIS AFTN WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFF THE NEW ENG COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS TONIGHT.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE STRATO-CU TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF DATA SUGGEST CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR
BY AFTN ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM UNV
SOUTH THRU AOO AND JST.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOMING LKLY.
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL -RA/-DZ.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN