901
FNUS71 KCTP 291123
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Bear Flats Unit 1...Pennsylvania Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
723 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 29.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
After some patchy morning fog generally across northern PA, mostly
clear conditions are expected for the majority of central
Pennsylvania outside of some lingering clouds across the northern
tier. This will allow for temperatures generally in the 80s and
MinRHs to drop into the 30-40% range across portions of the
Central Mountains with a light westerly wind. In the late afternoon
and evening hours, some showers and thunderstorms have potential
to develop across the northern tier before a more widespread
soaking rainfall enters the area overnight into Tuesday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    late in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 82.
Min Humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing Height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....West 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................20 to 44.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  9   27  11  16  13  20  18
Weather Cov.......                      SCH
Weather Type......                      RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  74  77  80  80  81  82  80
RH................  66  58  51  49  46  46  47
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  11  10  11  11  11  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  3.1 5.1 6.4 6.8 7.0 6.3 5.1
Transp Wind Dir...  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp Wind Spd...  8   12  13  12  13  13  10
LVORI.............  3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  20  43  43  43  44  44  44
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 59.
Max Humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    east 5 to 6 mph overnight.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east 8 to
                    9 mph overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................5 to 6.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  16  10  6   5   8   9   17  35  56  48  46  62
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  80  79  75  72  70  68  66  65  64  62  61  60
RH................  49  50  58  64  68  73  78  81  84  90  90  93
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   5   6   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  7   6   6       7   8   8   6   7   8   8
Mix Hgt (kft).....  4.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp Wind Dir...  W   SW  SW  S   S   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp Wind Spd...  9   7   7   6   7   8   7   8   8   8   9   8
LVORI.............  2   2   3   3   3   3   4   5   5   6   5   6
ADI...............  6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 16-25 strikes.
Max Temperature.....Around 78.
Min Humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 6 mph shifting to the south 6
                    to 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 7 to 9 mph shifting to the south 8 to
                    13 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................12 to 28.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  61  64  68  66  57  67  57  57  60  60  61  61
Weather Cov.......          CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type......          RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........                                  CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   4   4   4   4
Temp..............  60  59  61  61  64  69  72  75  77  77  77  77
RH................  93  93  90  93  84  70  64  58  54  54  56  56
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   8   8   8
20 FT Wind Gust...  8   8   8   8   8   8   8   10  10  11  11  11
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7
Transp Wind Dir...  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp Wind Spd...  9   9   9   8   7   7   7   8   8   9   12  13
LVORI.............  5   5   5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI...............  12  12  12  12  12  12  21  21  21  28  28  28
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Tyburski
Requested by...Jarrid Doyle
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412675.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jadoyle@pa.gov