Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 211704
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Leetonia Unit - Half Mile Trail Block...PA DCNR Bureau of Forestry
National Weather Service State College PA
104 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 EDT on April 22.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...

Skies will stay overcast into the mid afternoon hours before
clouds gradually break up from the west to east later today.

Min RH will range from the low 30s to low 40 percent range
today, between 25 and 30 pct Monday, and in the 30s Tuesday
afternoons. This should help to gradually dry out finer fuels
across the district.

The west to northwest wind will increase this afternoon to
around 10 MPH with gusts between 15 and 20 MPH afternoon.
Winds tonight will become light from the northwest or light
and variable in some locations. The wind will be a little
lighter on Monday compared to this Sunday afternoon.

Under clear to partly cloudy skies Monday night, winds will
be light and variable in direction then light from the
South-Southwest after midnight.

The next chance for rain will arrive late Tuesday as the
South-Southwest wind freshens to 10 to 20 mph with gusts into
the upper 20s to low 30s (MPH).

Showers move in from the west later Tuesday, and continue
through the day on Wednesday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-5 percent). Areas of frost overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 30.
Max Humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing Height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 10 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 8.

TIME (EDT)          MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  1   0   0   0   0   0
Weather Cov.......          ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather Type......          FST FST FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  34  33  32  32  31  31
RH................  61  66  69  69  72  72
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  11  10  10  10  10  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  12  12  10  10  12  10
LVORI.............  3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  8   8   8   5   5   5
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 52.
Min Humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing Height.......6400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 16 mph increasing to 15 to 20
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................21 early in the morning increasing to 62 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   3   3   3   3
Weather Cov.......  ARS ARS
Weather Type......  FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  30  30  33  36  39  42  44  46  49  50  51  51
RH................  72  69  61  52  46  41  36  34  29  29  29  29
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  5   5   6   6   8   7   8   8   7   7   7   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  13  13  14  14  14  13  13  13  12  12
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.5 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.3
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  10  9   13  16  20  18  20  18  18  16  15  15
LVORI.............  3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  21  21  21  56  56  56  62  62  62  54  54  54
Haines Index......  3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Patchy frost
                    overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 32.
Max Humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming west around 5 mph
                    late in the evening shifting to the south.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest
                    6 to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 5.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  2   2   1   2   2   3   6   8   11  16  20  25
Weather Cov.......                                  PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather Type......                                  FST FST FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  48  46  44  42  39  37  36  35  34  34  33  33
RH................  33  35  39  43  48  54  56  61  64  64  69  69
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   5   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  8   6   6   6   8   7   6   6   6   7   8
Mix Hgt (kft).....  4.4 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp Wind Spd...  12  9   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   9   9   10
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  5   5   5   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy frost
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 59.
Min Humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 15 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph increasing to 16 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 10 to 16 mph increasing to 21 to 28
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 early in the morning increasing to 91 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  28  32  35  41  46  52  54  57  59  64  68  73
Weather Cov.......  PTY PTY
Weather Type......  FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  35  36  38  42  45  49  52  54  57  58  58  59
RH................  66  67  64  57  55  50  46  45  42  40  42  40
20 FT Wind Dir....  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   7   9   12  14  15  16  17  17  17  18
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  11  14  18  20  23  25  26  28  29  30
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.5 0.6 1.9 3.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.6
Transp Wind Dir...  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp Wind Spd...  10  12  12  16  21  25  26  26  28  26  26  25
LVORI.............  3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  13  13  13  75  75  75  91  91  91  86  86  86
Haines Index......  3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Lambert
Requested by...Brian L Plume
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411610.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bplume@pa.gov
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