090
ACUS48 KWNS 100900
SWOD48
SPC AC 100858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a
southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern
Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to
make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley
on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday.

Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX
into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days
of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether
or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates.
Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the
location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too
low to outlook any areas.

Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on
D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place
ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences
within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of
antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit
overall forecast confidence.

From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable
run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and
the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable
buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during
this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting
variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas.

..Mosier.. 05/10/2024