Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
745 ACUS48 KWNS 130851 SWOD48 SPC AC 130849 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024