916
FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3664 (S19W80,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.0/1f flare (R3/Strong) at 12/1626
UTC, the strongest of the period. The region also produced a
long-duration M6.6 (R2/Moderate) flare at 13/0944 UTC. Associated
with the event were Type II (est. 683 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as
well as a Tenflare. A CME was observed from the region in available EUV
imagery but further coronagraph imagery is needed for analysis and
modeling. The region continued to evolve as it approached the W limb.

Regions 3675 (S05W50, Dsi/beta), 3670 (N20W17, Csi/beta), 3676 (S20E02,
Dai/beta-gamma-delta), and 3679 (S09E66, Dai/beta) exhibited growth.
Newly numbered Region 3680 was relatively stable as it and a yet
unnumbered region rotated around the NE limb. Another region of emerging
flux was noted near S08E12. The remaining spotted active regions were
either stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CME were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels over 13-14 May, with
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and X-class flares (R3/Strong) expected,
due to the flare potential of Region 3664. Solar activity is expected to
be low on 15 May with a chance for M-class flares as Region 3664 fully
rotates to the far side of the Sun.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 10/1335 UTC and
reached a peak flux of 207 pfu at 10/1745 UTC, ended at 12/1235 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated over
13 May with additional proton enhancements at S1 (Minor) storm levels
likely over 13-14 May due to the flare potential and location of Region
3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels on 13 May, and is likely to increase to high levels
on 14-15 May following a prolonged period of elevated geomagnetic
activity and enhanced solar wind conditions.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening CME influences from
all the preceding transients. However, conditions remained highly
agitated with solar wind speed decreasing gradually from ~900 km/s to
~650 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Total magnetic field
strength varied between 5-10 nT and the Bz component was at +/- 8 nT.

.Forecast...
An enhanced solar wind environment with CME influences is expected to
continue on 13 May. Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to
wane over 14 May with weak CH HSS influences becoming likely. Ambient
solar wind conditions are expected to return by 15 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due
to continued CME activity. Unsettled to active conditions were observed
outside after 13/0600 UTC.

.Forecast...
Periods of G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13
May due to continued CME influence. Active conditions to G1 (Minor)
storms are likely on 14 May due to weak CH HSS influences and the
possible glancing blow arrival of a CME from 12 May. Unsettled and
active levels are expected on 15 May with continued CH HSS influences
and possible waning CME influences.