Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 142323
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
623 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SEGMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED THROUGH IOWA TODAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES -8C TO -12C ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND TO THE WEST IN NEBRASKA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN HOWEVER SOME WEAK
KINEMATICS ARE INVOLVED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A
SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING PAST SUNSET BUT SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME THEY
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THOUGH AND
PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL AND IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATING SOME...AND WAA KICKING BACK IN AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM TO SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS THE
SFC LOW SHOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NRN
MISSOURI. WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NAM/GFS/EC ALL IN
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANCES QUITE HIGH. BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES IN THE THERMAL
PROPERTIES WITH THE GFS/EC WARMER THAN THE NAM. NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIALLY RAIN WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. GFS/EC SUGGEST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE COLDER NAM WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW/CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS/EC FOR NOW...SINCE THE NAM
SEEMS MORE LIKE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH OVERALL
WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND A TURN TOWARD SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPS. UPPER RIDGING THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/00Z
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS DECOUPLE THROUGH
01Z. STILL LIKELY TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



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