Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KDMX 180836
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND MINOR OUT AS
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. A STRONGER
SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH
LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND MAX TEMPERATURES.
LEANED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT THE 18.00Z NAM AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF SEEM
A BIT TOO COLD. PLUS...THE NAM DID SLIGHTLY BETTER WRT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD DISSIPATE IT RATHER QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SO WAA TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT FAVORED. WILL SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP FURTHER WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF
INDICATED YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WITH K
INDICES IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE WITH 700 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
AVAILABLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY IS BROKEN.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REDUCED BY THE DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT LOW
AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS S/WV WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
WEAKENS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER AIR SHOWS A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST AFTER THAT. CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EXCEPTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING TO AROUND 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED, AND OVER THE
EAST THU.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...BEERENDS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.