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000
FXUS63 KDMX 131125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

A QUIET AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT PEAK SUMMER INSOLATION WILL STILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SURFACE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL RETREAT TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW RIGHT
ON THE HEALS OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING. THE THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE AREA MOVING SLOWLY INTO WESTERN
IOWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION EASING INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH INTO FRIDAY WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
FOCUSED. WAVE WILL RIDE UP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY AXIS FEEDS
INTO THE STATE. SOME CONCERN AT THIS POINT THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION WILL HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND WITH FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
EVEN SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO SAG WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
BREAK FROM THE ACTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH PLENTY
OF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...13/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
AND SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE NORM TODAY...THEN TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST BUT MOSTLY AT ABOUT 10-15 KFT AGL. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...LEE