Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 281143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CAA EXPECTED WITH A
TIGHTENED SFC PRES GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY
HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SITES APPROACH CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW
STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE WITH THE CAA AND
CLOUD COVER...LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED. KEPT TEMPS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH...WITH UPPER 50S SOUTH WHERE
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EFFECTS OF CURRENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF IA BY TONIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
REMNANTS OF CURRENT TROUGH OFF BC COAST REACHES THE MO VALLEY BY
EARLY THU. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE KINEMATIC THAN
THERMODYNAMIC BASED ON EXAMINATION OF 300-310K LAYER...BUT THE
FORCING IS FAIRLY DEEP AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH
AND EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR A START. POPS
MAY NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND MAGNITUDE IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD SATURATION WILL LIMIT ANY
AMOUNTS REGARDLESS.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BUT EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE
THE 40S WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FRI NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY AND IT IS ALSO
BEYOND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. THEY
ARE DONE FOR THE SEASON.

IA WILL GET INTO STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SUN
WITH POPS INCREASING INTO MON AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION SPACIALLY AND TEMPORALLY SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
SUN INTO INTO MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TONIGHT. SOME LOW VFR HIGHER MVFR CLOUDS TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY IMPACTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS KMCW AND KALO INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS



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