Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 241744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS AFFECTED REGION FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE SOUTH EAST EARLY IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK BAND OF ENHANCED
FORCING PUSHES THROUGH. FORCING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED. HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...THOUGH
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...THOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION...AND
MAY SEE A SWITCH BACK TO RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CLOUDS...THOUGH
WAA RETURNS LATE WITH WEAK RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST AND HAVE
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF IOWA TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY WITH SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EAST OVERNIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION BEGINNING PROMPTLY ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE ON CHRISTMAS WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AND HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. ANY SNOW THAT REMAIN ON EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH INCREASED
FORCING ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS GULF
ESSENTIALLY CUTOFF FROM BEING A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE AT LEAST
INITIALLY. THEREFORE...DESPITE SOME DECENT LIFT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE STATE. DEEPER SATURATION EVENTUALLY OCCURS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE WEST EJECTS WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
CROSSING THE STATE. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT THE
BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL WAIT FOR ONE FINAL SYSTEM TO PASS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE STATE BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER
WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN LIFTING TOWARD MVFR TODAY...BUT SOME IFR
WILL LINGER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ESPECIALLY AT MCW BEFORE
FINALLY GOING ABOVE FL010. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS MORNING BEFORE
FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT FOD/MCW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE LOW CIGS AND SOME LIGHT BR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
CHRISTMAS EVE...ANY SLEIGHS WITH SUFFICIENT EXTERIOR LIGHTING
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAVIGATE THESE CONDITIONS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...LEE



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