000
FXUS63 KDMX 172343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERNS TONIGHT INCLUDE PRECIP TRENDS SOUTH EARLY...AND NE
OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A
SW-NE BOUNDARY BETWEEN LAMONI AND OSCEOLA OVER THE PAST HOUR BUT
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.  THIS APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN MORE BY A THETA-E
GRADIENT THAN SPEED CONVERGENCE.  RAP2 MLCAPES SHOW AROUND 1500 J/KG
UNCAPPED MLCAPES...BUT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN PULSY ISOLATED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOTHING BUT THAT WORDING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND.  SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BUT UNCAPPED AIRMASS.  FEEL POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE.  THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOOKING AT 300/305K ISENT SURFACES.
THUS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN TOKEN SLIGHT POPS FAR NE.

THERE IS ALSO A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING FAR SE WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK BUT
STEADY NW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVERALL LONG TERM MUDDLED WITH MANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY HARD TO NAIL DOWN...THUS LIMITING
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATING EAST/NORTHEASTERN AREA
UNCAPPED BY THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCES
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...AND CHANCES CONFINED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH THE
UNCAPPED REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING SOMEWHAT SCANT TOWARD
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT THE POPS LOW. AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE CWA MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...WITH PUSH OF THETA-E NOSE INTO THE CWA
TOWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONGER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE SPREAD POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND SHIFTS A BIT
EASTWARD WITH THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WAA AND WEAK
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER AS THE CAP BUILDS INTO THE CWA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT AND H7 TEMPS
INTO THE +13C RANGE...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE
NORTH/EASTERN CWA. WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TOWARD THE HIGH CHANCE WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CAPPING EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...18/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOCUS THIS EVENING WILL BE ON BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS ABOVE 12KT
WHICH SHOULD RELAX AFT 01Z. IN THE SOUTHEAST THERE IS A STILL VERY
SLIM CHANCE OF AN ISO RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW THAT KOTM WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST.
OTHERWISE OVN THERE WILL BE SOME BKN250 AND INCREASING CLOUDS
TOWARD 12Z AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE BRINGS MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE REGION FROM 12-18Z TUESDAY. THOUGH SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN
LOW NORTHEAST AFT 12Z TUES...WILL EVALUATE AGAIN FOR 06Z PACKAGE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV