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000
FXUS63 KDMX 112330
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
630 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns remain for Friday.

- Very warm weather Saturday through Monday.

- Thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon into the overnight
  hours. Severe weather initially looks possible in southwest
  Iowa (15% risk).

- Unsettled weather remains Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

An upper trough axis early this evening will extend south from
eastern Minnesota through eastern Iowa. A chance for lingering
showers with isolated thunderstorms across the eastern and
northeastern counties through mid evening. Clearing skies this
evening and overnight. Lows on the chilly side ranging from 35
to 38 degrees across the western and northwestern counties, to
the low 40s central and east. Gusty northwest winds 20 to 30 mph
early evening will diminish to 5 to 15 mph across the west,
while remaining breezy across the east overnight.

Friday, northwest flow aloft continues, with a breezy northwest
wind 15 to 30 mph, with lighter northwest winds across
southwestern areas. Sunny skies, with highs slightly warmer with
highs 60 to 65 areawide.

Fire weather concerns continue Friday with RH values as low as
25 to 30 percent with elevated winds. Curing in this region of
the state is starting to decrease as grass greens up, meaning
the area will be less vulnerable. Higher winds will be located
generally where rain fell today and may inhibit fire weather
conditions.

Well advertised warm weather is still on track for Saturday
through Monday. H850 temperatures will reach 12-14C on Saturday
as southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph. This will push
highs into the upper 70s to around 80. A weak cold front will
bring light northerly winds on Sunday for similar highs from
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Southerly winds increase to 20 to 30 mph on Monday as an upper
trough and closed low deepens across Colorado and New Mexico.
The area will see the warmest temperatures into the low to mid
80s. Now to talk about the round of storms we could see next
week. The GFS indicates SBCAPEs reaching up to 2500J/KG and deep
layer shear to around 30kts by 21Z Monday across southwest
Iowa. SPC has a slight risk Monday afternoon/Monday night across
southwest Iowa, which included Des Moines. Timing and location
discrepancies remain and will be better refined in the coming
days. Likely to categorical POPs Monday night as a deep closed
low lifts from western Kansas into southern Nebraska. The closed
low is forecast to lift into western Iowa on Tuesday with
showers and thunderstorms still likely. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Thursday as the
main upper trough extends eastward across the Northern Plains.
A cooling trend in highs from the low to mid 70s Tuesday to the
upper 50s to near 70 Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Predominantly expect VFR conditions to prevail, though winds
will remain elevated through much of the TAF period. The notable
VFR exceptions will be in/around KFOD/KMCW/KALO to begin this
period with scattered showers around that have a history of
briefly reducing visibilities around 2 to 4 miles. This activity
will subside over the next couple of hours, giving way to VFR
conditions rest of the period. As mentioned winds will remain
elevated, including overnight with gusts into the 20s kts.
Eastern sites KALO/KOTM will see gusts into the mid/upper 20s
kts during daytime hours Friday before easing as high pressure
slides in late in the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Curtis