Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 271751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SHOWS UP QUITE NICELY
IN 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST SOUTH OF WATERLOO. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP OVER
NERN SECTIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD EXIT BY 12Z AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  PLAN VIEWS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SEVERAL HUNDRED UNCAPPED MLCAPES DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NIL CONVERGENCE NOTED FEEL IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING TO FORM WITHOUT MORE FOCUS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...BUT FEEL
THAT WIDESPREAD SLIGHT MENTIONS WOULD BE OVERDONE. TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND NICELY WITH MOST HIGHS TO 80 OR JUST ABOVE...AND MIXING
SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT SOMEWHAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHOVING TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE STATE AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF TO PICK UP AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND REMAIN ORIENTED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
THEREFORE STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF TO TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY INTO IOWA FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WAA AND
THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. ENERGY CONTINUES TO
LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF CANADA BRINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SINK THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE CONTINUED SOGGY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
60S...WITH A RETURN TO SOME 70S/80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER IOWA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF LOCATIONS.  A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE IN
SPEED AFTER 28/14Z.  WE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BUT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB



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