Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 022034
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WAVE PUSHING SOUTH ALONG MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL BE MAIN CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA GIVEN ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN IS FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS
EXPECT...HELPING TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER WEST WITH DRY
AIR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. SYSTEMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHERN IOWA...CONTINUING
TO HELP KEEP PRECIP OUT OF CWA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS AFTER
06Z...THOUGH THIS MAY BE TOO SOON WITH WAVE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH
FROM DAKOTAS. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL GIVEN LACK OF WARMING WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS UP
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY ACROSS IOWA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH PERIOD. SHRA MAY AFFECT WESTERN
SITES KFOD/KDSM EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
ATTM WITH SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE
IN PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z...AND INCREASING AGAIN BEYOND
12Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...AWB



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