Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 110555
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT SNOW COMING TO END ACROSS THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED. FORCING
IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND DRY AIR AS BEGUN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST THIN OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO SET UP. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE GFS AND ECMWF. CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER THE NAM.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA BY MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH MUCH OF THE
FORCING OCCURRING IN A LAYER WARMER THAN THE PEAK DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. PLATES AND COLUMNS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE WITH THIS
TEMPERATURE AND FORCING REGIME THUS SNOW RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 12-13 TO 1. OVERALL LIGHT AMOUNTS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND MAY CAUSE ROADWAYS TO BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND ICY AGAIN. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
NEAR 30 BELOW OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA. LIKELY WILL REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL. AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE KINEMATICALLY FORCED LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY. CERTAINLY MAY HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES OF SNOW. A
WARMING TREND ARRIVES NEXT WEEK WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL BE
COMMON NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...11/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES AT 06Z. ISOLATED MVFR
CIGS LINGER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION
IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE SLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT ALL SITES INTO THE EVENING...STARTING 23-01Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL


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