Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FGUS73 KDMX 051517
ESFDMX
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051-
053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-
135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195-
197-081330-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
915 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS DES MOINES SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS
THE TIME PERIOD FOR EARLY MARCH THROUGH EARLY JUNE 2015. IT INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

  IOWA...CEDAR...SKUNK...DES MOINES...RACCOON...NISHNABOTNA...
  102...THOMPSON AND CHARITON RIVERS


THIS OUTLOOK IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE
SEASON. BEGINNING IN EARLY APRIL THE NWS WILL RESUME ISSUING
MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THESE OUTLOOKS COVER EACH MONTH.
YOU MAY ALSO REFER TO THE NWS DES MOINES WEBSITE FOR MORE
INFORMATION AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES .

SUPPLEMENTAL MAPS AND GRAPHICS CONCERNING THE RISK OF FLOODING ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE NWS DES MOINES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ WEBPAGE AT...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DMX . ON THAT PAGE
CLICK ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP LABELED EXPERIMENTAL LONG-RANGE
FLOOD RISK.


...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY JUNE IS PRESENTLY NEAR
NORMAL.

* CURRENTLY THERE ARE FACTORS THAT TEND TO INCREASE THE FLOOD RISK...
AS WELL AS FACTORS THAT TEND TO DECREASE THE FLOOD RISK. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE TENDS TO INCREASE THE RISK
OF FLOODING...BUT THE BELOW NORMAL SNOW PACK TENDS TO DECREASE THE
FLOOD RISK. OTHER FACTORS...SUCH AS NEAR NORMAL STREAM FLOWS...
NEITHER INCREASE NOR DECREASE THE FLOOD RISK. CONSIDERATION OF ALL
FACTORS...WHETHER THEY TEND TO INCREASE OR DECREASE THE FLOOD
THREAT...HAS RESULTED IN THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD RISK
BEING NEAR NORMAL.

* THIS OUTLOOK USES THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS THE ASSUMPTION OF NEAR NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY JUNE. IF WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVIATE FROM NEAR NORMAL THEN THE
RISK PORTRAYED IN THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE DIFFERENT THAN INDICATED. FOR
EXAMPLE...IF WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL THEN THE ACTUAL
RISK OF FLOODING WOULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN THIS OUTLOOK.


THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS
OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO THREE PARTS...THE FIRST PART FOR THE
PROBABILITIES OF MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...THE SECOND
PART FOR HIGH WATER AND THE FINAL PART FOR LOW WATER.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT /CS/ AND HISTORICAL /HS/ OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE          13.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD           17.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY          10.0   14.5   15.5 :  <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK          13.5   18.0   20.0 :   6   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD        12.0   13.0   14.0 :   7    9    6    6   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS         88.0   90.0   93.0 :  40   52   15   38   <5   16
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDSON              14.0   15.0   19.0 :  41   44   18   27   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
WATERLOO            13.0   19.0   21.0 :  12   32   <5    7   <5   <5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN               12.5   15.0   17.0 :   7   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
MARSHALLTOWN        19.0   23.0   26.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE    12.5   16.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY    10.0   14.0   15.5 :   9   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30          21.5   23.5   24.5 :  10   15   <5    6   <5   <5
COLFAX              18.0   19.0   21.0 :  10   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
OSKALOOSA           24.5   28.5   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA              17.0   18.0   22.0 :  12   20    6   12   <5   <5
DAKOTA CITY         20.0   24.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY        14.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES              14.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON           19.0   21.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PERRY               15.0   18.0   20.0 :  60   49   26   30   12   18
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD            20.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER           17.0   22.0   23.0 :  20   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES IA 28    36.0   38.0   40.0 :  20   20    6   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES FLEUR    12.0   16.0   25.0 :  66   58   16   15   <5   <5
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK             22.0   25.0   26.0 :  18   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA           23.0   26.0   28.0 :   9   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH            29.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY              25.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE          8.0   13.0   14.5 :  16   44   <5    7   <5   <5
EMMETSBURG          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   18   <5   10   <5   <5
HUMBOLDT            10.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE          10.5   16.0   17.0 :  15   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRATFORD           21.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES 2ND AV   23.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES SE 6TH   24.0   26.0   30.0 :  50   49   15   21   <5   <5
EDDYVILLE           61.0   68.0   70.0 :  50   44   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTTUMWA             11.0   15.0   19.0 :  49   44   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY          12.0   20.0   24.0 :  17   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY        25.0   28.0   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON            19.5   26.0   29.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MOULTON             36.0   37.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC            19.0   23.0   24.0 :   5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD             24.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            3.9    4.2    5.2    6.1    7.6   11.0   12.8
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD             9.2    9.5   10.7   11.6   12.6   14.5   15.3
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            5.0    5.1    5.5    6.2    7.0    7.7   10.0
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK            9.3    9.4    9.8   10.7   11.5   12.5   13.9
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          5.3    5.6    6.3    7.2    8.6   11.0   13.3
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          83.4   84.0   86.0   87.7   88.8   91.1   93.0
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDSON                9.5    9.8   12.1   13.6   14.7   15.7   16.3
:CEDAR RIVER
WATERLOO              7.8    8.0    9.1    9.9   11.0   13.3   17.5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 8.5    8.6    9.1   10.3   11.0   12.2   13.7
MARSHALLTOWN         14.0   14.3   14.9   16.2   17.0   17.9   19.6
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      5.5    5.9    7.0    7.8    9.3   11.0   11.3
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      3.9    4.1    5.1    6.1    7.4   10.1   12.7
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30           14.5   14.9   16.6   18.0   19.8   22.0   23.5
COLFAX               10.0   10.3   11.8   13.3   15.8   18.1   19.6
OSKALOOSA            13.0   13.3   15.7   18.7   20.2   21.9   23.1
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA               12.9   13.2   13.9   15.2   16.2   17.3   18.5
DAKOTA CITY          11.3   11.8   12.3   13.7   14.9   16.9   18.6
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          5.6    5.8    7.0    8.1    9.3   10.4   12.1
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                6.1    6.5    8.8   10.7   12.1   12.9   13.4
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             8.9    9.2   10.9   13.1   15.6   17.5   18.9
PERRY                11.0   11.2   13.1   15.8   18.3   21.3   21.9
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              4.2    4.7    7.5    9.5   11.7   15.3   20.4
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             7.1    7.4   10.6   13.4   15.6   19.2   21.0
DES MOINES IA 28     27.3   27.7   31.1   33.6   35.1   37.1   38.4
DES MOINES FLEUR      6.2    6.5   10.6   13.0   14.7   17.6   19.0
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK              11.8   12.2   15.1   18.8   21.3   22.4   22.9
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA            11.3   11.5   14.2   16.5   19.1   23.3   24.9
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              8.9    9.7   11.9   13.4   18.6   24.3   28.3
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                9.7    9.9   12.7   14.4   16.3   19.4   20.2
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           3.2    3.3    3.6    4.4    6.8    9.3   10.3
EMMETSBURG            2.7    2.8    3.3    4.4    7.2    9.3   10.4
HUMBOLDT              5.2    5.3    5.9    6.8    7.9    9.2    9.5
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            6.0    6.5    7.4    8.5    9.2   10.8   11.5
STRATFORD            10.3   10.8   13.0   14.9   16.4   18.9   20.9
DES MOINES 2ND AV    16.4   16.6   18.2   18.6   18.9   19.8   20.3
DES MOINES SE 6TH    16.9   17.6   22.0   24.2   25.0   27.0   27.8
EDDYVILLE            55.7   56.2   59.8   61.0   61.8   62.6   63.1
OTTUMWA               6.4    6.9    9.5   11.1   12.6   13.4   14.4
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY            2.3    2.8    6.6    8.6   10.7   13.9   14.5
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY          5.6    6.1   12.5   17.5   19.7   21.6   22.1
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON             11.4   13.5   15.5   16.6   17.9   18.7   19.3
MOULTON              20.7   22.2   26.4   29.6   33.7   34.5   34.9
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC              3.2    4.1    6.6    8.8   15.3   17.5   19.1
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD              11.8   14.9   16.1   17.7   18.9   20.4   21.6


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD             5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK            7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          78.5   78.5   78.5   78.5   78.5   78.5   78.5
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDSON                5.5    5.5    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3
:CEDAR RIVER
WATERLOO              5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
MARSHALLTOWN          9.5    9.5    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      3.9    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.3    3.2
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.4
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30           10.9   10.8   10.4   10.0    9.7    9.3    9.2
COLFAX                8.1    8.0    7.9    7.7    7.6    7.1    7.1
OSKALOOSA             9.2    9.0    8.8    8.5    8.3    7.5    7.4
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA                7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
DAKOTA CITY           7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.6
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                3.7    3.6    3.6    3.4    3.1    2.7    2.5
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             6.0    5.9    5.8    5.6    5.4    5.2    5.1
PERRY                 5.5    5.3    5.1    4.9    4.5    4.0    3.8
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              3.7    3.5    3.3    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.8
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             4.4    4.2    4.0    3.9    3.6    3.1    2.9
DES MOINES IA 28     23.3   23.1   23.0   22.9   22.6   22.0   21.7
DES MOINES FLEUR      2.0    1.7    1.6    1.4    1.0    0.5    0.3
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK               6.8    6.7    6.5    6.0    5.5    5.3    5.2
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA             7.5    7.5    7.4    7.0    6.8    6.7    6.7
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              6.6    6.5    6.2    5.9    5.7    5.5    5.5
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                6.1    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.3    5.3
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
EMMETSBURG            0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3
HUMBOLDT              3.2    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
STRATFORD             5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.1
DES MOINES 2ND AV    13.3   13.3   13.2   13.2   13.2   13.2   13.0
DES MOINES SE 6TH    12.1   11.8   11.5   11.4   11.1   10.7   10.4
EDDYVILLE            51.7   51.4   51.1   50.3   49.5   48.9   48.5
OTTUMWA               3.6    3.3    3.0    2.5    1.9    1.4    1.1
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY            0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.8    0.7    0.7
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY          3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    2.7    2.7
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON              5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0
MOULTON              18.9   18.4   18.3   18.1   18.1   18.0   18.0
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC              2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD              10.9   10.9   10.9   10.8   10.8   10.4    9.7


THESE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON SCENARIOS
FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC
NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 4TH 2015...

THIS INFORMATION PERTAINS TO THE NWS DES MOINES SERVICE AREA.

.SNOW PACK...THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW PACK IS NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.STREAM FLOWS...STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

.SOIL MOISTURE...SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MOST LOCATIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES ARE ON THE WET SIDE
OF NORMAL.

.DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE AREA...ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST NEAR THE
IOWA-MINNESOTA BORDER.

.FROST DEPTH...FROST DEPTHS ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 INCH RANGE.

$$

ZOGG


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