Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FGUS73 KDMX 251827
ESFDMX
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051-
053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-
135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195-
197-151800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1226 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN THE NWS DES MOINES SERVICE AREA. THIS OUTLOOK IS
DIVIDED INTO THREE PARTS...THE FIRST PART FOR THE PROBABILITIES OF
MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...THE SECOND PART FOR HIGH WATER
AND THE FINAL PART FOR LOW WATER.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE          13.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD           17.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY          10.0   14.5   15.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK          13.5   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD        12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS         88.0   90.0   93.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WATERLOO            13.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN               12.5   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MARSHALLTOWN        19.0   23.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE    12.5   16.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY    10.0   14.0   15.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30          21.5   23.5   24.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
COLFAX              18.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
OSKALOOSA           24.5   28.5   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA              17.0   18.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DAKOTA CITY         20.0   24.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY        14.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES              14.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON           19.0   21.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PERRY               15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD            20.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER           17.0   22.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES IA 28    36.0   38.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES FLEUR    12.0   16.0   25.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK             22.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA           23.0   26.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH            29.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY              25.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE          8.0   13.0   14.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EMMETSBURG          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HUMBOLDT            10.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE          10.5   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRATFORD           21.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES 2ND AV   23.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES SE 6TH   24.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EDDYVILLE           61.0   68.0   70.0 :   9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTTUMWA             11.0   15.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY          12.0   20.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY        25.0   28.0   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON            19.5   26.0   29.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MOULTON             36.0   37.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC            19.0   23.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD             24.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            1.1    1.1    1.5    2.1    3.2    4.7    4.9
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD             6.0    6.3    6.8    7.5    8.4   10.9   11.3
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            3.2    3.3    3.6    4.1    4.7    5.7    5.9
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK            7.6    7.7    8.0    8.6    9.5   10.0   10.2
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          2.2    2.4    2.8    3.9    5.0    6.0    6.7
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          78.6   78.7   79.1   79.9   82.1   84.6   86.1
WATERLOO              5.6    5.7    6.0    6.4    7.3    8.2    8.9
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 3.7    3.8    5.2    6.4    8.5    9.7   10.3
MARSHALLTOWN          9.5    9.8   10.3   11.0   12.3   13.7   14.4
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      3.3    4.0    4.5    5.7    6.4    7.6    8.4
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      1.5    2.2    2.6    3.7    4.8    5.3    6.4
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30            9.7   11.1   12.2   14.5   15.9   17.2   18.9
COLFAX                7.5    8.0    8.5    9.9   11.0   12.3   14.4
OSKALOOSA             8.7    8.9   10.4   12.5   14.4   17.1   18.9
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA                7.2    7.2    7.9    8.7   11.7   12.8   13.8
DAKOTA CITY           7.8    7.8    8.4    9.0   10.5   11.0   11.8
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          1.9    2.0    2.6    3.5    4.4    6.0    6.7
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                3.4    3.5    4.4    6.1    7.5    9.1    9.9
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             5.2    5.8    6.7    7.7    9.5   11.3   12.9
PERRY                 4.4    5.4    7.6    9.1   11.9   13.7   15.8
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              3.9    4.1    4.9    5.9    6.9    8.0    9.7
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             4.9    5.1    6.2    7.6    9.3   11.1   13.9
DES MOINES IA 28     23.2   23.6   25.0   27.0   29.1   30.8   33.5
DES MOINES FLEUR      2.3    2.8    4.3    6.4    8.8   10.8   13.2
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK               5.6    5.8    8.6   11.5   15.9   19.6   21.4
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA             7.7    8.6   10.1   12.4   15.0   16.9   18.8
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              6.7    7.2    8.7   10.9   11.9   12.9   14.2
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                7.0    8.5    9.6   11.0   12.2   13.6   15.1
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.5    3.0    3.2
EMMETSBURG            0.7    0.7    0.7    1.1    2.2    2.6    3.2
HUMBOLDT              3.2    3.4    4.0    4.6    5.6    6.5    6.8
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            3.5    3.7    4.4    5.0    5.9    7.0    8.0
STRATFORD             5.2    5.6    6.6    7.5    9.5   11.4   14.0
DES MOINES 2ND AV    13.3   13.6   14.1   14.7   16.1   17.5   18.5
DES MOINES SE 6TH    10.9   11.8   13.6   15.4   18.1   20.7   23.0
EDDYVILLE            50.7   51.2   53.7   55.6   59.0   61.0   61.1
OTTUMWA               3.2    3.4    5.4    6.7    8.8   10.9   11.2
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY            1.6    1.9    3.3    4.8    6.8    8.9   10.7
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY          6.4    6.9    8.9   12.4   15.3   19.5   19.8
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON              5.6    8.2   11.5   13.9   15.5   16.4   16.7
MOULTON              24.7   24.7   25.8   27.1   28.5   30.8   32.4
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC              4.0    4.5    5.3    5.9    6.9    9.1   13.6
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD              11.5   13.3   14.8   15.5   16.2   18.3   19.2


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    0.9    0.9    0.9
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD             6.0    6.0    5.9    5.9    5.8    5.8    5.8
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK            7.6    7.6    7.6    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0    1.9
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          78.6   78.6   78.5   78.4   78.4   78.4   78.3
WATERLOO              5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 3.6    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2
MARSHALLTOWN          9.5    9.5    9.4    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.1
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      1.4    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30            9.2    9.2    9.2    9.1    9.0    9.0    9.0
COLFAX                7.4    7.4    7.3    7.1    7.0    7.0    6.9
OSKALOOSA             8.3    8.2    8.0    7.8    7.6    7.5    7.5
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA                7.1    7.1    7.0    6.9    6.8    6.8    6.8
DAKOTA CITY           7.7    7.7    7.6    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8
PERRY                 4.1    4.0    3.9    3.7    3.5    3.4    3.4
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             3.8    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4
DES MOINES IA 28     22.0   21.9   21.9   21.7   21.6   21.5   21.4
DES MOINES FLEUR      1.0    1.0    0.9    0.8    0.7    0.6    0.6
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK               5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA             6.7    6.7    6.6    6.6    6.5    6.5    6.5
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              6.1    6.1    6.0    6.0    6.0    5.9    5.9
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
EMMETSBURG            0.4    0.4    0.4    0.3    0.3    0.2    0.2
HUMBOLDT              3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            3.4    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1
STRATFORD             5.1    5.1    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7
DES MOINES 2ND AV    12.9   12.9   12.8   12.7   12.7   12.7   12.7
DES MOINES SE 6TH    10.2   10.2   10.0    9.8    9.7    9.6    9.6
EDDYVILLE            49.5   49.2   49.1   48.7   48.5   48.4   48.4
OTTUMWA               2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY            1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY          3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON              5.1    5.0    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
MOULTON              21.2   21.1   19.9   19.8   18.2   18.2   18.2
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC              3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD              10.8   10.8   10.8   10.6   10.6   10.6   10.6


THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30- TO 90-DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DMX FOR MORE WEATHER
AND WATER INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE 1ST OF NEXT MONTH.

$$

END


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