Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FGUS73 KDMX 022126
ESFDMX

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
325 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This flood outlook is for the NWS Des Moines service area. It
covers the time period for March through late May 2017. It
includes the following rivers and their tributaries in north
central, central and south central Iowa...

Iowa, Cedar, Skunk, Des Moines, Raccoon, Nishnabotna, 102,
Thompson and Chariton Rivers


This outlook is the last scheduled spring flood outlook for the
season. Beginning in early April the NWS will result issuing monthly
probabilistic outlooks. These outlooks cover each month. You may
also refer to the NWS Des Moines Website for more information at...
http://www.weather.gov/desmoines .


...Flood Outlook Highlights...

* The risk of minor, moderate and major river flooding is
generally near normal at all locations.

* It is important to continue monitoring weather and river
conditions--as well as future outlooks--for any changes to the
flood threat. Any future precipitation--as well as changes to river
or other weather conditions--may increase or decrease the risk of
flooding.

* Maps and graphics concerning the risk of flooding are available
on the NWS Des Moines Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Web
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=dmx . On that
page click on the tab above the map labeled Experimental Long-
Range Flood Risk.

* You may also refer to our web site for more information at
http://www.weather.gov/desmoines .

This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in north central, central and south central Iowa.
This outlook is divided into three parts--the first part for the
probabilities of minor, moderate and major flooding, the second
part for high water and the final part for low water.

In Table 1 below, the current /CS/ and historical /HS/ or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding
that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less
than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than
normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Cedar River
Janesville          13.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford           17.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Winnebago River
Mason City          10.0   14.5   15.5 :   6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock          13.5   18.0   20.0 :   8   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford        12.5   14.0   15.0 :  10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls         88.0   90.0   93.0 :  68   51   38   40    9   18
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson              14.0   15.0   19.0 :  38   41   13   14   <5   <5
:Cedar River
Waterloo            13.0   19.0   21.0 :  23   33   <5    6   <5   <5
:Iowa River
Rowan               12.5   15.0   17.0 :  14   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Marshalltown        19.0   23.0   26.0 :   8    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tama Hwy E49        12.5   13.0   14.0 :  17   22   12   14   <5    5
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside    12.5   16.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Squaw Creek
Ames Lincoln Way    10.0   14.0   15.5 :  10   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30          21.5   23.5   24.5 :  12   17    5    6   <5   <5
Colfax              18.0   19.0   21.0 :  11   15    6    6   <5   <5
Oskaloosa           24.5   28.5   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona              17.0   18.0   22.0 :  19   20    6   12   <5   <5
Dakota City         20.0   24.0   28.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boone River
Webster City        14.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Grimes              14.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson           19.0   21.0   23.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Perry               15.0   18.0   20.0 :  61   50   27   32   12   19
:South Raccoon River
Redfield            20.0   24.0   27.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Raccoon River
Van Meter           17.0   22.0   23.0 :  20   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines IA 28    36.0   38.0   40.0 :  17   17    5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines Fleur    12.0   16.0   25.0 :  56   51   20   22   <5   <5
:North River
Norwalk             22.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River
Indianola           23.0   26.0   28.0 :   7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South River
Ackworth            29.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Bussey              25.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville          8.0   13.0   14.5 :  46   44   <5    9   <5   <5
Emmetsburg          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  12   19   <5   11   <5   <5
Humboldt            10.0   13.0   14.0 :  12   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge          10.5   16.0   17.0 :  18   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stratford           21.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines 2nd Av   23.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines SE 6th   24.0   26.0   30.0 :  56   49   10   17   <5   <5
Eddyville           63.0   68.0   70.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Ottumwa             11.5   15.0   19.0 :  17   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Davis City          12.0   20.0   24.0 :  <5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City        25.0   28.0   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chariton River
Chariton            19.5   26.0   29.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Moulton             36.0   37.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic            19.0   23.0   24.0 :   6    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford             24.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
ft = Feet


In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cedar River
Janesville            4.9    5.1    5.8    7.2    8.4   11.5   12.8
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford            10.2   10.2   11.1   12.1   13.1   14.8   15.5
:Winnebago River
Mason City            6.1    6.2    6.3    6.9    7.8    8.5   10.8
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock           10.7   10.8   11.0   11.6   12.4   13.0   14.4
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford          5.8    6.6    7.8    9.5   11.3   12.5   13.6
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls          85.8   85.9   87.4   88.8   90.8   92.5   94.2
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson                9.3    9.6   11.8   13.4   14.4   15.3   15.6
:Cedar River
Waterloo              9.0    9.1    9.9   11.2   12.9   14.7   18.7
:Iowa River
Rowan                 8.4    8.5    9.1   10.5   11.6   12.7   14.2
Marshalltown         13.4   13.5   14.3   15.8   17.1   18.7   19.8
Tama Hwy E49          8.0    8.1    9.1   11.2   12.0   13.2   13.7
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside      4.8    5.4    7.1    7.9    9.4   11.0   11.3
:Squaw Creek
Ames Lincoln Way      3.3    3.9    5.0    5.8    7.4   10.5   12.8
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30           13.5   14.3   16.6   18.0   19.9   22.1   23.6
Colfax                9.4   10.0   12.6   14.4   17.1   18.2   19.5
Oskaloosa            12.0   12.1   15.7   18.5   20.1   21.5   22.5
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona               12.7   13.1   14.2   15.3   16.5   17.5   18.4
Dakota City          11.7   11.7   12.8   14.2   15.8   17.2   18.4
:Boone River
Webster City          4.8    5.2    6.1    7.5    9.1   10.4   11.0
:Beaver Creek
Grimes                4.6    6.5    8.4   10.0   12.0   12.9   13.4
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson             7.6    8.2   10.8   13.3   15.8   17.3   18.9
Perry                 8.4    9.0   13.0   15.8   18.4   21.1   21.9
:South Raccoon River
Redfield              3.5    4.2    7.0    8.9   11.2   14.9   20.3
:Raccoon River
Van Meter             6.0    6.4   10.0   13.1   15.5   18.8   21.0
Des Moines IA 28     25.8   26.3   30.6   33.4   35.1   36.8   38.2
Des Moines Fleur      4.5    5.0    9.5   12.4   14.8   17.3   18.7
:North River
Norwalk               7.6    9.4   13.6   16.5   18.9   21.2   21.5
:Middle River
Indianola             9.0   10.2   14.0   15.6   17.1   21.7   23.6
:South River
Ackworth              8.2    9.3   11.5   13.2   16.4   21.9   27.3
:Cedar Creek
Bussey                5.2    7.1   10.4   12.7   14.5   18.0   19.0
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville           5.4    5.5    6.0    7.4    9.8   11.3   11.9
Emmetsburg            4.8    5.2    5.7    7.1    9.5   11.2   12.5
Humboldt              6.1    6.4    7.0    8.1    9.3   10.1   10.7
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge            6.7    6.8    7.9    8.8   10.1   11.5   11.9
Stratford            11.3   11.6   12.7   15.4   17.5   19.8   20.5
Des Moines 2nd Av    16.9   17.0   18.2   18.9   19.7   20.0   20.3
Des Moines SE 6th    17.5   17.7   21.0   24.1   24.7   26.1   27.0
Eddyville            55.5   55.7   59.6   60.7   61.6   62.1   63.0
Ottumwa               5.9    6.1    9.2   10.3   11.2   12.2   13.1
:Thompson River
Davis City            1.1    1.8    4.8    6.2    7.7   10.4   11.5
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City          3.8    4.6   10.7   17.0   19.7   21.6   22.1
:Chariton River
Chariton              8.3   11.8   14.4   15.9   17.3   18.1   18.5
Moulton              19.4   19.8   24.4   27.2   32.7   34.4   34.7
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic              4.1    4.6    7.0   11.2   16.4   17.9   19.8
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford              10.9   13.0   14.5   16.9   18.2   19.8   21.1


In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (ft) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cedar River
Janesville            2.2    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.3    1.3
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford             7.7    7.4    7.2    6.9    6.6    6.5    6.4
:Winnebago River
Mason City            4.3    4.1    3.9    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock            9.0    8.8    8.7    8.4    8.2    8.1    8.0
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford          3.7    3.6    3.4    3.1    2.9    2.7    2.6
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls          80.4   80.3   80.0   79.4   79.1   78.9   78.9
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson                6.2    6.1    5.8    5.5    5.4    5.2    5.1
:Cedar River
Waterloo              6.7    6.6    6.5    6.2    6.0    5.8    5.8
:Iowa River
Rowan                 5.5    5.3    5.1    4.6    4.2    3.9    3.8
Marshalltown         11.0   10.9   10.8   10.4   10.2    9.9    9.8
Tama Hwy E49          4.5    4.3    4.0    3.5    3.1    2.8    2.6
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside      4.2    4.0    3.9    3.7    3.5    3.2    3.2
:Squaw Creek
Ames Lincoln Way      2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.5    1.5
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30           11.4   11.1   10.7   10.4    9.8    9.3    9.2
Colfax                8.6    8.5    8.2    8.0    7.5    7.2    7.1
Oskaloosa            10.4   10.1    9.3    8.8    8.1    7.3    7.2
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona                9.0    8.7    8.3    8.0    7.8    7.7    7.5
Dakota City           9.7    9.6    9.2    8.8    8.5    8.3    8.2
:Boone River
Webster City          2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6
:Beaver Creek
Grimes                4.0    3.8    3.6    3.3    3.1    2.7    2.5
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson             6.6    6.4    6.0    5.8    5.6    5.4    5.3
Perry                 6.4    6.0    5.5    5.1    4.7    4.2    4.0
:South Raccoon River
Redfield              3.2    3.1    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.4
:Raccoon River
Van Meter             4.6    4.4    4.0    3.8    3.5    3.0    2.8
Des Moines IA 28     23.7   23.5   23.1   22.8   22.4   21.9   21.7
Des Moines Fleur      2.5    2.2    1.6    1.3    1.1    0.7    0.5
:North River
Norwalk               7.2    6.8    6.3    5.9    5.5    5.4    5.3
:Middle River
Indianola             7.5    7.4    7.2    7.0    6.8    6.7    6.7
:South River
Ackworth              6.2    5.8    5.7    5.5    5.3    5.2    5.1
:Cedar Creek
Bussey                5.2    5.2    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville           4.4    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.0    2.7    2.6
Emmetsburg            3.3    3.2    2.4    1.8    1.6    1.1    1.0
Humboldt              5.2    5.0    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.7    3.6
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge            5.7    5.2    4.9    4.5    4.2    4.1    3.9
Stratford             8.8    7.7    7.2    6.7    6.2    6.1    5.9
Des Moines 2nd Av    14.5   14.3   14.2   14.0   13.6   13.5   13.3
Des Moines SE 6th    13.7   13.5   12.7   12.2   11.3   10.6   10.4
Eddyville            54.4   53.2   51.3   50.5   49.7   49.2   49.0
Ottumwa               5.0    4.3    3.2    2.8    2.3    2.0    1.9
:Thompson River
Davis City            1.1    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.8    0.7    0.6
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City          2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7
:Chariton River
Chariton              4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Moulton              18.4   18.2   18.2   18.1   18.1   18.1   18.1
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic              2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford              10.7   10.7   10.7   10.7   10.7   10.6   10.1


These numbers are calculated using multiple spring season
scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data. These
numbers also take into account current conditions of the river,
snow cover and soil moisture, as well as 30 to 90 day outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of
probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-
range planning decisions can be determined.


...Current Conditions as of March 1st 2017...

* Snow Pack...the snow pack is below normal across all of the NWS
Des Moines service area. Water equivalent of the snow pack where
it exists mainly north of Iowa Highway 3, is as high as one inch
mainly in the Mason City area.

* Soil Moisture...soil moisture is above to much above normal
across the northwest two-thirds of the NWS Des Moines service
area. It is at or near record high values along the Minnesota
border--mainly along and north of the Iowa Highway 9 corridor.
Elsewhere, soil moisture is generally near to below normal.

* Frost Depth...ground frost is generally limited across the state.

* Stream Flows...stream flows are generally near to above normal,
with a few locations reporting much above normal stream flows. The
far southeast corner of the NWS Des Moines service area is
reporting below normal stream flows.

* Drought Conditions...abnormally dry conditions exist across the
southeast corner of the NWS Des Moines service area. Drought
conditions do not exist elsewhere.

$$

NWS DMX


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