Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FGUS73 KDMX 201413
ESFDMX
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051-
053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-
135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195-
197-231330-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
813 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS DES MOINES SERVICE AREA. IT
COVERS THE TIME PERIOD FOR LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH LATE MAY 2014. IT
INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH
CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

IOWA...CEDAR...SKUNK...DES MOINES...RACCOON...NISHNABOTNA...
102...THOMPSON AND CHARITON RIVERS


...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO SPRING IS PRESENTLY
NEAR NORMAL.

* CURRENTLY THERE ARE FACTORS THAT TEND TO INCREASE THE RISK OF
FLOODING...AS WELL AS FACTORS THAT TEND TO DECREASE THE RISK OF
FLOODING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE DEEP FROST DEPTH TENDS TO INCREASE THE
RISK OF FLOODING BUT THE BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE TENDS TO
DECREASE THE FLOOD RISK. CONSIDERATION OF ALL FACTORS...WHETHER
THEY TEND TO INCREASE OR DECREASE THE FLOOD THREAT...HAS RESULTED
IN THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD RISK BEING NEAR NORMAL.

* A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS. THUS...IT IS
IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE MONITORING WEATHER AND RIVER CONDITIONS...AS
WELL AS FUTURE OUTLOOKS...FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE FLOOD THREAT. ANY
FUTURE PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CHANGES TO RIVER OR OTHER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE THE RISK OF
FLOODING.

* MAPS AND GRAPHICS CONCERNING THE RISK OF FLOODING IS AVAILABLE
ON THE NWS DES MOINES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEB
PAGE AT... HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DMX . ON
THAT PAGE CLICK ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP LABELED EXPERIMENTAL
LONG-RANGE FLOOD RISK.

* THE NEXT...UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...MARCH
6TH 2014. YOU MAY ALSO REFER TO OUR WEB SITE FOR MORE INFORMATION
AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES .


THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO THREE PARTS...THE FIRST PART FOR THE
PROBABILITIES OF MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...THE SECOND
PART FOR HIGH WATER AND THE FINAL PART FOR LOW WATER.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT /CS/ AND HISTORICAL /HS/ OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS
IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE          13.0   15.0   18.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD           17.0   18.0   20.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY          10.0   14.5   15.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK          13.5   18.0   20.0 :  12   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD        12.0   13.0   14.0 :   9    7    6    6   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS         88.0   90.0   93.0 :  50   53   21   38   10   13
WATERLOO            13.0   19.0   21.0 :  20   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN               12.5   15.0   17.0 :  12   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
MARSHALLTOWN        19.0   23.0   26.0 :   6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE    12.5   16.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY    10.0   14.0   15.5 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30          21.5   23.5   24.5 :   6   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
COLFAX              18.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
OSKALOOSA           24.5   28.5   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA              17.0   18.0   22.0 :  <5   20   <5    9   <5   <5
DAKOTA CITY         20.0   24.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY        14.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES              14.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON           19.0   21.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PERRY               15.0   18.0   20.0 :  15   47   <5   24   <5   12
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD            20.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER           17.0   22.0   23.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES IA 28    36.0   38.0   40.0 :  <5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES FLEUR    12.0   16.0   25.0 :  38   64   <5   10   <5   <5
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK             22.0   25.0   26.0 :  13   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA           23.0   26.0   28.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH            29.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY              25.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE          8.0   13.0   14.5 :  20   38   <5    7   <5   <5
EMMETSBURG          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   18   <5    6   <5   <5
HUMBOLDT            10.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE          10.5   16.0   17.0 :  <5   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRATFORD           21.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES 2ND AV   23.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DES MOINES SE 6TH   24.0   26.0   30.0 :  16   41   <5   15   <5   <5
EDDYVILLE           61.0   68.0   70.0 :  20   44   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTTUMWA             11.0   15.0   19.0 :  29   49   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY          12.0   20.0   24.0 :   9   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY        25.0   28.0   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON            19.5   26.0   29.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MOULTON             36.0   37.0   38.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC            19.0   23.0   24.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD             24.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION /CURRENT OUTLOOK/
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS /FT/ FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD. REFER TO TABLE 1 FOR THE FLOOD STAGES FOR EACH
LOCATION.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            4.4    4.8    5.9    7.0    8.9   12.7   14.7
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD             7.4    7.9    8.6   11.0   12.5   14.9   17.8
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            4.7    5.0    5.7    6.4    7.7    8.7   10.6
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK            9.5    9.9   10.3   11.1   12.5   14.5   15.1
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          5.5    5.7    6.4    7.4    9.7   12.3   13.6
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          83.7   84.1   85.7   88.0   89.8   93.2   95.4
WATERLOO              7.9    8.0    8.8   10.3   12.0   16.1   19.3
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 6.2    7.1    8.1    9.5   11.5   13.2   14.6
MARSHALLTOWN         10.9   11.1   12.0   14.6   16.3   17.1   19.4
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      3.9    4.4    5.4    6.8    8.9   10.3   11.0
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      3.0    3.5    4.4    5.5    6.9    8.1   10.6
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30           12.0   13.1   14.9   16.8   19.6   21.0   22.4
COLFAX                8.2    8.7   10.2   11.9   15.1   16.6   18.0
OSKALOOSA             9.5   10.3   13.1   16.8   20.1   22.8   23.7
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA                7.8    8.0    8.7   10.7   13.5   14.9   16.4
DAKOTA CITY           8.4    8.6    9.2   10.6   12.8   14.2   15.3
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          3.9    4.2    5.2    6.1    8.4    9.8   11.8
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                4.2    4.9    5.9    8.0   10.7   11.8   12.6
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             5.9    6.3    7.4   10.3   11.9   14.0   14.8
PERRY                 5.5    6.0    8.3   12.5   14.0   16.2   17.2
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              3.6    3.8    5.8    7.3    9.3   12.5   14.0
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             4.2    4.6    6.3    9.3   11.4   13.9   17.9
DES MOINES IA 28     23.4   23.9   26.2   30.3   32.3   34.6   36.6
DES MOINES FLEUR      4.6    5.1    7.7   11.3   12.8   14.4   16.8
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK               6.5    7.6   12.2   17.0   20.6   22.2   22.4
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA             8.2    9.5   12.2   15.0   17.0   21.9   23.4
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              6.2    7.5    9.9   12.1   15.6   22.3   27.0
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                6.3    7.8   11.2   13.8   15.2   18.7   20.3
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           3.7    3.8    4.1    4.7    7.3    9.7   10.2
EMMETSBURG            2.9    3.1    3.5    4.3    7.3    9.1    9.6
HUMBOLDT              4.4    4.5    4.8    5.6    7.7    8.9    9.0
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            4.7    5.0    5.3    6.3    8.2    9.6   10.0
STRATFORD             7.3    7.5    8.9   11.6   14.0   16.7   18.5
DES MOINES 2ND AV    16.5   16.6   17.8   19.3   20.3   20.6   21.2
DES MOINES SE 6TH    12.6   13.4   16.2   20.7   22.9   24.4   25.9
EDDYVILLE            50.2   51.1   56.4   59.2   60.8   61.8   63.2
OTTUMWA               3.1    3.7    7.6    9.7   11.5   12.8   14.7
:THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY            0.7    2.1    3.5    5.6    7.4   11.4   13.0
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY          5.5    6.9   12.7   17.6   19.5   21.6   22.2
:CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON              9.8   13.3   14.8   16.1   17.2   18.3   18.7
MOULTON              21.0   23.4   25.4   28.1   33.1   34.4   34.9
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
ATLANTIC              3.5    4.1    6.0    7.8   12.8   16.4   17.8
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER
BEDFORD              11.4   13.5   15.3   16.2   17.3   19.0   20.4


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS /FT/ FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD. REFER TO TABLE 1 FOR THE FLOOD STAGES FOR EACH
LOCATION.

...TABLE 3--NON EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE            0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD             5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY            3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK            7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4    7.4
:BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFORD          2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.4
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS          78.3   78.3   78.3   78.3   78.3   78.2   78.2
WATERLOO              5.3    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2
:IOWA RIVER
ROWAN                 2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8
MARSHALLTOWN          9.0    9.0    8.9    8.8    8.8    8.7    8.7
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES W RIVERSIDE      2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.5
:SQUAW CREEK
AMES LINCOLN WAY      1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    0.8    0.1   -0.6
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES US 30            8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.6    8.5    8.4
COLFAX                6.4    6.4    6.4    6.3    6.3    6.0    6.0
OSKALOOSA             8.2    8.2    8.0    7.9    7.5    6.9    6.9
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA                6.6    6.6    6.6    6.5    6.3    5.6    5.5
DAKOTA CITY           7.3    7.3    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.0
:BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY          1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.6
:BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES                2.8    2.8    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.4    2.4
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON             4.8    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.6
PERRY                 3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD              3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.7    2.5    2.4
:RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER             2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.2    2.2
DES MOINES IA 28     21.9   21.9   21.8   21.7   21.6   21.2   21.2
DES MOINES FLEUR      3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.8    2.8
:NORTH RIVER
NORWALK               5.4    5.3    5.1    4.9    4.6    4.5    4.5
:MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA             7.4    7.3    7.2    6.8    6.5    6.4    6.3
:SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH              5.2    5.2    5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9
:CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY                5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.0    4.9    4.9
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE           1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.7
EMMETSBURG           -0.1   -0.1   -0.1   -0.1   -0.2   -0.2   -0.2
HUMBOLDT              2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
:DES MOINES RIVER
FORT DODGE            3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0
STRATFORD             4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.5    4.4
DES MOINES 2ND AV    14.9   14.9   14.9   14.9   14.9   14.9   14.9
DES MOINES SE 6TH    10.0   10.0    9.9    9.9    9.8    9.6    9.5
EDDYVILLE            48.7   48.6   48.6   48.4   48.0   47.7   47.6
OTTUMWA               1.9    1.8    1.8    1.6    1.3    1.0    0.8


THESE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON
SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE
NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 20TH 2014...

.SNOW PACK...THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW PACK IS NEAR NORMAL.

PLEASE NOTE...AS OF TODAY /FEBRUARY 20TH/...A WINTER STORM WILL
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OUR REGION. THUS...THE
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COMPARED TO ITS CURRENT
ASSESSMENT.

.STREAM FLOWS...STREAM FLOWS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

.SOIL MOISTURE...SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS MUCH BELOW NORMAL.

.DROUGHT CONDITIONS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN US HIGHWAY
20 AND IOWA HIGHWAY 34 WHERE MODERATE OR SEVERE /D1 OR D2/
CONDITIONS EXIST. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE...ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE /D0 OR D1/ CONDITIONS EXIST.

.FROST DEPTH...FROST DEPTHS ARE IN THE 20 TO 35 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES ARE MUCH DEEPER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
YEARS.

$$

ZOGG



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