Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-
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197-291200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
749 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This flood outlook is for the NWS Des Moines service area. It covers
the time period for mid-February through mid-May 2024. It includes
the following rivers and their tributaries in north central, central
and south central Iowa...

Iowa, Cedar, Skunk, Des Moines, Raccoon, Nishnabotna, 102, Thompson
and Chariton Rivers


This outlook is the first in a series of three outlooks for the
spring flood season. The next outlook will be issued on February
22nd. You may also refer to the NWS Des Moines Website for more
information at... http://www.weather.gov/desmoines .

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

* The risk of minor, moderate and major flooding is near to below
  normal at all locations.

* It is important to continue monitoring weather and river
  conditions--as well as future outlooks--for any changes to the
  flood threat. Future weather--including amount, frequency and
  extent of precipitation as well as rate of snowmelt--can be big
  factors in any potential spring flood threat.

* Maps and graphics concerning the risk of flooding are available on
  the NWS Des Moines Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Web page
  at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=dmx . On that page
  click on the tab above the map labeled Experimental Long-Range
  Flood Risk.

* You may also refer to our web site for more information at
  http://www.weather.gov/desmoines .

This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in the NWS Des Moines service area. This outlook is
divided into three parts--the first part for the probabilities of
minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water
and the final part for low water.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding
that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than
HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Cedar River
Janesville          13.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford           17.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Winnebago River
Mason City          10.0   14.5   15.5 :   5   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock          12.0   18.0   20.0 :   8   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford        12.5   14.0   15.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls         89.0   92.0   94.0 :  20   48   <5   19   <5    7
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson              14.0   15.0   19.0 :  22   37   11   23   <5   <5
:Cedar River
Waterloo            13.0   19.0   21.0 :   8   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Iowa River
Rowan               12.5   15.0   17.0 :  <5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
Marshalltown        19.0   23.0   26.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tama Hwy E49        12.5   13.0   14.0 :  <5   20   <5   14   <5   <5
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside    12.5   16.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ioway Creek
Ames Lincoln Way    10.0   14.0   15.5 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30          21.5   23.5   24.5 :   6    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Colfax              18.0   19.0   21.0 :   5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Oskaloosa           24.5   28.5   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona              17.0   18.0   22.0 :   6   27   <5   11   <5   <5
Dakota City         20.0   24.0   28.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boone River
Webster City        14.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Grimes              14.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson           19.0   21.0   23.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Perry               15.0   18.0   20.0 :  32   47    9   27   <5   15
:South Raccoon River
Redfield            20.0   24.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Raccoon River
Van Meter R Ave     17.0   22.0   23.0 :   6   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines IA 28    36.0   38.0   40.0 :   6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines Fleur    12.0   16.0   25.0 :  47   66    7   18   <5   <5
:North River
Norwalk Hwy R57     22.0   25.0   26.0 :   7   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River
Indianola           23.0   26.0   28.0 :   5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South River
Ackworth            29.0   30.0   32.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Bussey              25.0   30.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville         10.0   13.0   14.5 :   9   20   <5    8   <5   <5
Emmetsburg          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Humboldt            10.0   13.0   14.0 :  11   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge          10.5   16.0   17.0 :   8   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stratford           19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines 2nd Av   23.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Des Moines SE 6th   24.0   26.0   30.0 :  20   43   <5   11   <5   <5
Eddyville           63.0   68.0   70.0 :   5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Ottumwa             11.5   15.0   19.0 :  13   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Davis City          12.0   20.0   24.0 :  13   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City        25.0   28.0   31.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chariton River
Chariton            19.5   26.0   29.0 :   7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Moulton             36.0   37.0   38.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic            19.0   23.0   24.0 :   7   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford             24.0   25.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cedar River
Janesville            1.9    2.2    3.2    4.6    6.2    8.8   10.7
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford             6.9    7.3    8.6   10.0   11.6   12.8   14.2
:Winnebago River
Mason City            5.2    5.2    6.2    7.6    8.7    9.7   10.1
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock            8.3    8.6    9.0    9.9   11.1   11.9   12.7
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford          2.3    2.6    3.4    4.6    6.3   10.4   12.1
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls          79.7   80.0   82.0   84.6   87.0   90.2   91.7
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson                6.4    7.0    8.6   11.4   13.7   15.1   15.4
:Cedar River
Waterloo              6.1    6.2    7.2    8.5    9.8   12.2   14.0
:Iowa River
Rowan                 4.7    5.1    6.0    7.0    8.4   10.5   11.5
Marshalltown         11.0   11.2   11.9   13.2   15.0   16.6   18.1
Tama Hwy E49          2.6    3.4    4.3    7.1    9.9   11.9   12.3
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside      4.2    4.9    6.4    7.5    9.2   10.5   11.1
:Ioway Creek
Ames Lincoln Way      2.6    3.0    4.1    4.8    6.1    7.0    9.3
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30           11.5   12.3   14.3   16.2   18.6   20.5   21.6
Colfax                8.5    9.2   11.4   13.5   16.4   17.5   18.1
Oskaloosa             9.2   10.5   13.5   16.0   19.1   21.6   22.5
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona                8.8    8.9   10.0   12.9   15.2   16.5   17.2
Dakota City           8.5    8.7    9.4   11.7   13.5   15.3   16.3
:Boone River
Webster City          3.2    3.8    5.1    6.7    8.4    9.6   10.4
:Beaver Creek
Grimes                3.2    4.2    5.9    7.4    9.8   11.4   11.7
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson             6.1    6.8    8.7   10.8   12.5   14.0   16.3
Perry                 6.4    7.2   11.2   14.0   15.6   16.9   19.7
:South Raccoon River
Redfield              3.0    3.3    5.8    7.1    8.1   11.8   14.8
:Raccoon River
Van Meter R Ave       4.2    4.8    8.9   11.3   12.7   15.4   19.4
Des Moines IA 28     21.6   22.2   26.4   29.1   30.8   34.0   36.4
Des Moines Fleur      4.6    5.5   10.3   11.9   13.0   14.9   17.6
:North River
Norwalk Hwy R57       5.4    7.2   10.3   14.5   18.7   21.7   22.1
:Middle River
Indianola             8.7   10.7   13.6   15.3   16.9   20.9   23.2
:South River
Ackworth              6.8    8.3   10.1   12.2   14.8   22.8   29.3
:Cedar Creek
Bussey                5.3    7.4    9.1   12.9   14.6   16.8   20.3
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville           2.9    3.2    3.5    4.5    7.7    9.7   10.4
Emmetsburg            1.7    2.2    2.6    4.2    7.4    9.1   10.1
Humboldt              4.7    4.9    5.7    6.9    8.6   10.1   10.5
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge            4.6    5.0    5.7    7.3    8.8   10.3   10.9
Stratford             6.8    7.0    9.6   12.5   14.8   18.1   18.9
Des Moines 2nd Av    16.2   16.3   18.6   20.2   20.8   21.8   22.1
Des Moines SE 6th    11.8   12.4   17.9   21.5   23.4   24.8   25.4
Eddyville            49.2   52.4   58.4   60.0   60.9   61.9   63.1
Ottumwa               2.5    4.6    7.6    9.3   10.3   12.0   13.5
:Thompson River
Davis City            2.5    3.7    4.8    6.6    9.4   12.3   18.9
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City          7.6    9.0   13.8   17.5   21.0   22.0   24.8
:Chariton River
Chariton             11.9   12.5   14.7   16.3   17.3   18.4   20.8
Moulton              19.6   22.2   27.0   28.4   32.7   34.2   36.0
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic              4.1    4.7    6.5    7.5   13.1   16.5   20.0
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford              12.9   14.0   15.0   17.1   18.5   20.0   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cedar River
Janesville            1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    0.9    0.9    0.9
:West Fork Cedar River
Finchford             5.9    5.8    5.8    5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6
:Winnebago River
Mason City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0
:Shell Rock River
Shell Rock            7.6    7.6    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4
:Beaver Creek
New Hartford          1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Cedar River
Cedar Falls          78.7   78.6   78.6   78.5   78.5   78.4   78.4
:Black Hawk Creek
Hudson                4.9    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5
:Cedar River
Waterloo              5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1    5.1
:Iowa River
Rowan                 3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9
Marshalltown         10.0    9.9    9.9    9.8    9.8    9.7    9.7
Tama Hwy E49          1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.9
:South Skunk River
Ames W Riverside      2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.3
:Ioway Creek
Ames Lincoln Way      0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.8    0.8    0.6
:South Skunk River
Ames US 30            9.3    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0    8.8    8.6
Colfax                6.8    6.7    6.7    6.6    6.5    6.5    6.3
Oskaloosa             8.7    8.5    8.3    8.0    7.8    7.5    7.2
:East Fork Des Moines River
Algona                7.0    6.9    6.9    6.8    6.8    6.3    6.1
Dakota City           7.5    7.4    7.4    7.3    7.3    7.2    7.2
:Boone River
Webster City          1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6
:Beaver Creek
Grimes                2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.2    2.0    2.0
:North Raccoon River
Jefferson             4.9    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.6
Perry                 4.0    3.9    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.2
:South Raccoon River
Redfield              2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    1.9    1.8
:Raccoon River
Van Meter R Ave       2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.1    2.0
Des Moines IA 28     20.1   19.9   19.9   19.7   19.5   19.4   19.2
Des Moines Fleur      3.3    3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7
:North River
Norwalk Hwy R57       4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.3
:Middle River
Indianola             7.3    7.3    7.2    7.0    6.9    6.9    6.8
:South River
Ackworth              5.4    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2
:Cedar Creek
Bussey                4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7
:West Fork Des Moines River
Estherville           2.4    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0
Emmetsburg            0.7    0.6    0.5    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2
Humboldt              3.4    3.4    3.2    3.1    3.1    2.9    2.9
:Des Moines River
Fort Dodge            3.6    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1
Stratford             5.1    5.0    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.4
Des Moines 2nd Av    15.2   15.1   15.0   15.0   14.9   14.8   14.8
Des Moines SE 6th     9.8    9.7    9.4    9.3    9.1    8.9    8.8
Eddyville            48.1   47.9   47.7   47.5   47.3   47.1   47.0
Ottumwa               1.9    1.8    1.6    1.5    1.2    1.1    1.0
:Thompson River
Davis City            0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7
:South Fork Chariton River
Promise City          3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8
:Chariton River
Chariton              4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Moulton              18.2   18.2   18.1   18.1   18.1   18.1   18.1
:East Nishnabotna River
Atlantic              2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
:East Fork 102 River
Bedford              11.0   11.0   11.0   11.0   11.0   11.0   11.0


These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the river,
soil moisture, snow cover and 30- to 90-day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service/s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.


...Current Conditions as of February 15th 2024...

* River Levels...river levels were running generally near to below
  normal.

* Soil Moisture...soil moisture was running below to much below
  normal.

* Snowpack...some light snow existed across the far north and
  northwest. Snow water equivalents were less than 0.1 inches.
  Additional snow is forecast for tonight with snow water equivalents
  of generally less than 0.2 inches. The highest amounts are expected
  to be between the US 20 and US 30 corridors.

* Frost Depth...where ground frost existed, depths were generally one
  inch or less.

* Drought Conditions...Extreme Drought (D3) conditions existed across
  portions of the northwest and east central. Generally, severe
  Drought (D2) to Moderate Drought (D1) conditions existed
  elsewhere except the far northwest and far south where Abnormally
  Dry (D0) conditions existed.

$$

Zogg


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