Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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450
FNUS73 KDMX 191315
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LEO GRAU...IA DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
815 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND PROVIDE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 17 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (800-17400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (120500-132500 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........35  42  48  50  51  48  52
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............65  66  67  68  68  69  69
RH..............52  48  45  42  40  37  37
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..12  13  14  14  14  14  14
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  20  20  20  20  20
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.9   9   10  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...8.5 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.3 8.1 8.0
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..15  16  17  17  17  17  17
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 6 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (61400-118100 KNOT-FT)
                    DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR (1000-24400 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........57     42     56     40     31     41
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............69     65     60     57     54     50
RH..............36     43     58     62     69     80
20 FT WIND......S 13   SSE 12 SSE 8  SSE 8  SSE 8  SSE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 9    SSE 9  SSE 6  SSE 6  SSE 6  SSE 5
EYE LVL WND GST.15     15     15     15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....7900   5300   300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......S 17   SSE 13 SE 8   SSE 13 SSE 12 SE 6
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1000-17500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    POOR TO EXCELLENT (0-91200 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........53        66        72        75
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............49        61        69        71
RH..............83        58        47        44
20 FT WIND......SE 8G10   SSE 10G15 SSE 13G20 SSE 13G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 6G10   SSE 7G15  SSE 9G20  SSE 9G15
MIX HGT (FT)....300       4200      6800      7100
MIXNG WIND......M         M         M         M
HAINES INDEX....M         M         M         M

$$
FORECASTER...PODRAZIK
REQUESTED BY...JEFF FEISEL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160519.LEOGR.01/DMX



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