Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FNUS73 KDMX 201519
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Spot Forecast for I.A.M. Utilities Rx Prairie Burn...Saylor Twp. Fire Dept
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1019 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on October 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...ATTENTION...
The previous spots were overwritten when you
submitted the additional requests. If you need the information
from the initial request in a spot forecast, then you need to
resubmit that spot request and we can then generate a spot
forecast from that new request.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to gusty south winds will develop this morning and
continue this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will be
in the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon and while the relative
humidity values are not very low, the combined conditions and
drying cropland will lead to a very high fire danger mainly over
the cropland today. Any fires that do develop over cropland will
have the potential for rapid growth. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase tonight and especially later Saturday
afternoon and into the overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3200 ft AGL increasing to 3700-4700 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph increasing to 28 to 30 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........12  10  9   12  17  25  35
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............67  69  72  75  76  76  74
RH..............63  57  51  48  46  46  50
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..13  14  16  18  18  18  17
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  20  25  30  30  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.4 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.0
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..17  22  25  28  29  29  30
HAINES INDEX....4   5   5   5   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......1400-3300 ft AGL decreasing to 800-1500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........44     52     54     66     74     74
WEATHER COV.....                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............72     66     63     62     63     63
RH..............51     63     72     75     72     78
20 FT WIND......S 16   S 14   S 14   S 13   S 13   S 14
20 FT WIND GUST.25     20     20     20     20     25
MIX HGT (FT)....3300   2000   800    900    1100   1500
MIXNG WIND......S 30   S 28   S 23   S 21   S 21   S 22
HAINES INDEX....4      4      3      3      3      2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1500-3400 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4100 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 31 mph increasing to 29 to 32 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........79        84        84        91
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
TEMP............62        64        68        73
RH..............84        84        78        66
20 FT WIND......S 15G25   S 14G30   S 16G30   S 16G30
MIX HGT (FT)....1500      1700      2600      3700
MIXNG WIND......S 22      S 26      S 32      S 31
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         3

$$
Forecaster...Beerends
Requested by...Inspector, John Norris
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717614.0/DMX
.EMAIL john.norris@saylorfd.com


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