Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FNUS73 KDMX 141226
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Kellerton west lek...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
626 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Overnight RH recoveries were very good as RH values neared 90%.
Winds this afternoon will be on the breezy side, blowing from the
northwest at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts near 25 mph. Skies should
be mostly sunny. 10 to 15 degrees above normal temperatures will
drop min RH values to near 40 percent this afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 8 to 17 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4300 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 25
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28  27  27  26  23  21  18  15  11  7
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............30  36  40  45  47  49  50  50  49  47
RH..............88  75  67  55  51  46  42  42  44  49
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..12  13  14  13  14  14  15  16  17  15
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  20  20  25  20  20
EYE LVL WND DIR.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   8   8   8   8   8   9   10  10  9
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  15  15  15  20  20  25  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.6 2.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
MIXNG WIND SPD..12  14  14  14  15  18  23  25  23  20
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 25.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 12 to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 12 to 15 mph.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........6      4      2      4      8      14
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............43     39     34     31     29     26
RH..............55     64     75     78     78     85
20 FT WIND......NW 14  N 15   N 15   N 15   N 14   N 12
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     20     20     20     15
EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 8   N 9    N 9    N 9    N 8    N 7
EYE LVL WND GST.20     20     20     20     20     15

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 7 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 10 mph.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........19        19        4         3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............26        29        38        44
RH..............81        66        44        35
20 FT WIND......N 10G15   N 10G15   NW 9G15   NW 10
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 6G15    N 6G15    NW 5G15   NW 6G10

$$
Forecaster...Kotenberg
Requested by...Natural Resource Tech 2
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702047.0/DMX
.EMAIL josh.rusk@dnr.iowa.gov



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