Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 230259
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Prairie Point Crossing...City of Johnston
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
959 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...
Rain chances are forecast Thursday morning into the early
afternoon. Breezy weather forecast for Thursday. Widespread rain
is likely by Friday and look to persist into Saturday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Slight chance of rain.
Temperature.........40 at ignition...Min 53.
RH..................62 percent at ignition...Max 76 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 9 to 18 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise South winds 9 to 18 mph.
                    Gusts up to 30 mph in the late morning and
                    early afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the night.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 500-2400 ft
                    AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL after midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 23 mph shifting to the south 7
                    to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........97  97  97  95  94  92  92  92  92  84  77  70  71  71  72  72  74  74  73  70  68  73
WEATHER COV.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH     SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN      RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH     SCH                                     SCH SCH
TEMP............40  41  43  45  48  50  52  54  56  58  59  60  59  56  55  55  55  55  54  54  54  53
RH..............62  70  73  70  68  66  63  64  62  59  57  58  60  66  69  69  69  69  71  71  71  77
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..10  12  16  17  18  17  14  15  17  17  16  15  10  10  10  10  12  12  10  10  9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  25  25  30  25  20  25  25  25  25  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.6   7   10  10  11  10  8   9   10  10  10  9   6   6   6   6   7   7   6   6   5   5
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  25  25  30  25  20  25  25  25  25  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..21  22  22  22  23  23  23  22  21  18  15  13  12  10  10  9   8   7   8   10  12  12
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then rain likely and chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 12 mph in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth in the
                    morning.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........83           89           91
WEATHER COV.....S CHC        CHANCE       LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN         RAIN         RAIN
TSTM COV........S CHC
TEMP............53           58           66
RH..............80           75           61
20 FT WIND......S 9G10       S 9G15       S 8G10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5G10       S 5G15       S 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....300          900          4400
MIXNG WIND......S 10         S 12         M
HAINES INDEX....4            3            M

$$
Forecaster...Cogil
Requested by...Kari Allen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704980.0/DMX
.EMAIL kallen@cityofjohnston.com


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