Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 241215
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Jordan Acres 2...Story County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
715 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Strong south winds are expected today as pressure gradient remains
tight. Strongest winds will be in northern Iowa with gusts
approaching 40 mph by afternoon. Winds will be somewhat weaker in
southern Iowa but still a bit gusty by afternoon. The strong winds
will aid in smoke dispersion today but also make it more difficult
to control any fires once they get started. Relative humidity
values will drop to around 30 percent by afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Temperature.........56 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................53 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 13 mph increasing to 17 to 23
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 7 to 13 mph increasing to 17 to 23
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1800 ft
                    AGL increasing to 4600-5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 16 mph increasing to 22 to 31 mph
                    late in the morning, then increasing to 28 to
                    35 mph early in the afternoon decreasing to
                    around 24 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........24  24  28  36  45  55  63  67  60
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............56  60  64  66  68  70  71  71  71
RH..............53  47  40  37  34  32  31  32  32
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..13  17  18  21  22  22  23  22  21
20 FT WIND GUST.15  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   10  11  13  13  13  14  13  13
EYE LVL WND GST.15  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.8
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..22  26  31  33  35  32  28  24  24
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   6   6   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Min 52.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 8 to 17 mph shifting to the
                    south 7 to 8 mph after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 17 mph shifting to the
                    south 7 to 8 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......3100-4600 ft AGL decreasing to 500-1900 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph shifting to the south 9
                    to 12 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).........50        56        66        58
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............70        63        58        55
RH..............35        50        59        66
20 FT WIND......S 17G25   S 10G15   SE 8G10   S 8G10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 10G25   S 6G15    SE 5G10   S 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....4600      1900      600       500
MIXNG WIND......S 24      SE 15     SE 10     S 10
HAINES INDEX....5         4         3         2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......500-1600 ft AGL increasing to 3300-4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph increasing to 22 to 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........78           87           97
WEATHER COV.....             CHANCE       CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         RNSHWR       RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52           59           66
RH..............77           67           58
20 FT WIND......S 6          SE 7G10      SE 10G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 4G5        SE 4G10      SE 6G15
MIX HGT (FT)....500          1600         4400
MIXNG WIND......S 13         SE 12        SE 24
HAINES INDEX....2            2            4

$$
Forecaster...Cogil
Requested by...Ben Marcus
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707640.0/DMX
.EMAIL bmarcus@storycountyiowa.gov



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