Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 241249
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for McF Prairie...Story County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
749 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Strong south winds are expected today as pressure gradient remains
tight. Strongest winds will be in northern Iowa with gusts
approaching 40 mph by afternoon. Winds will be somewhat weaker in
southern Iowa but still a bit gusty by afternoon. The strong winds
will aid in smoke dispersion today but also make it more difficult
to control any fires once they get started. Relative humidity
values will fall to around 30 percent by mid afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Temperature.........56 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 13 mph increasing to 17 to 23
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 7 to 13 mph increasing to 17 to 23
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1800 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2600-4500 ft AGL in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 16 mph increasing to 22 to 31 mph
                    late in the morning, then increasing to 26 to
                    35 mph early in the afternoon decreasing to 22
                    to 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28  27  31  37  45  54  63  67  61
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............56  60  64  67  68  69  70  70  70
RH..............51  46  40  36  34  33  32  32  33
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..13  17  20  21  22  22  23  23  21
20 FT WIND GUST.15  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   10  12  13  13  13  14  14  13
EYE LVL WND GST.15  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..22  26  31  33  35  31  26  22  23
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........Min 52.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 9 to 18 mph shifting to the
                    south 7 to 9 mph after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph shifting to the south 7 to 9 mph
                    after midnight.
Mixing height.......3000-4300 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 25 mph decreasing to 9 to 15 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........51     49     65     67     62     58
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............69     66     60     58     56     54
RH..............35     42     53     57     64     71
20 FT WIND......S 18   S 14   S 9    SE 8   S 9    S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.30     20     10     10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 11   S 8    S 5    SE 5   S 5    S 5
EYE LVL WND GST.30     20     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4300   3000   500    300    300    400
MIXNG WIND......S 25   S 21   SE 10  S 10   S 13   S 13
HAINES INDEX....5      5      4      3      3      2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 18 mph increasing to 22 to 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........77        88        94        98
WEATHER COV.....          S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52        56        62        66
RH..............77        72        65        58
20 FT WIND......S 7G10    SE 8G10   SE 9G10   SE 10G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 4G10    SE 5G10   SE 5G10   SE 6G15
MIX HGT (FT)....300       900       3000      4300
MIXNG WIND......S 10      SE 10     SE 18     SE 24
HAINES INDEX....2         2         3         4

$$
Forecaster...Cogil
Requested by...Danny Simcox
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707653.0/DMX
.EMAIL dsimcox@storycountyiowa.gov


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