Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 111140
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR RATHBUN...US COE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...

SUNNY SKIES...A DRY AIRMASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 71.
RH..................39 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5500 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 15
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (72000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........41  36  27  23  23  23  23  21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............58  62  65  68  69  71  71  70
RH..............39  32  29  26  25  24  24  25
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..10  12  12  13  13  13  12  10
20 FT WIND GUST.    15  15  15  15  20  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   9   9   9   9   9   9   7
EYE LVL WND GST.    15  15  15  15  20  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 3.3 4.9 6.5 7.1 7.6 8.2 5.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..14  15  15  14  13  13  12  12
HAINES INDEX....6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).........19        28        33        30
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
RH..............28        47        61        66
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 6G10   S 6G10    S 7G10    S 7G15

.SATURDAY...

EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
20 FT WIND......S 12G15      S 17G25      S 20G30
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 9G15       S 12G25      S 14G30

$$
FORECASTER...COGIL
REQUESTED BY...JOHN PASA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140411.RATHB.01/DMX



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