Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 110932
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR DUNBAR...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
432 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES...A DRY AIRMASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
RH..................34 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 21 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 10600 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 7100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 26
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST 20 TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (186000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........39  34  25  21  21  22  22  22
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............59  64  68  70  72  73  74  74
RH..............34  30  26  25  24  22  21  21
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..15  15  16  16  16  15  14  12
20 FT WIND GUST.20  25  25  25  25  25  20  20
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
EYE LVL WND SPD.11  11  11  11  11  11  10  9
EYE LVL WND GST.20  25  25  25  25  25  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 4.3 7.1 9.8 10  10  11  7.1
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
MIXNG WIND SPD..23  26  28  26  24  20  16  15
HAINES INDEX....6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50.
RH..................MAX 74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).........23        33        44        56
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............73        59        52        52
RH..............23        40        56        63
20 FT WIND......SW 10G15  S 12G15   S 13G15   S 14G20

$$
FORECASTER...COGIL
REQUESTED BY...BLAKE KNISLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140411.DUNBA.01/DMX



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