Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 200905
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR THORN VALLEY...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...

AS MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE...REACHING SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO FALL OFF SHARPLY AFTER
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........40 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
RH..................73 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2000-59800 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........7   5   5   5   5   6   7   8   9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............40  45  49  53  57  60  63  64  64
RH..............73  60  52  46  40  35  30  28  29
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..7   8   8   9   10  12  12  13  12
20 FT WIND GUST.    10  10  10      15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   6   6   6   7   9   9   9   9
EYE LVL WND GST.    10  10  10      15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.0
MIXNG WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
MIXNG WIND SPD..8   8   9   10  12  13  14  14  13
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37.
RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1200-25400 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........10     10     11     12     12     14
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62     55     48     45     42     40
RH..............31     41     60     70     76     76
20 FT WIND......SW 10  SW 9   SW 9   W 9    NW 9   N 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 7   SW 6   SW 6   W 6    NW 6   N 6
EYE LVL WND GST.15     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2900   1400   300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......SW 10  S 8    SW 8   SW 8   W 7    NW 6
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57.
RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1300-16700 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........15        17        20        21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............38        40        50        56
RH..............79        62        41        32
20 FT WIND......N 8G10    N 10G15   NE 10G15  NE 7
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 6G10    N 7G15    NE 7G15   NE 5
MIX HGT (FT)....300       800       2100      3100
MIXNG WIND......N 6       N 12      NE 9      NE 6
HAINES INDEX....4         5         5         5

$$
FORECASTER...LEE
REQUESTED BY...JIM KRIZMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150320.THORN.01/DMX



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