Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 171237
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Lower Morse Pasture...USFWS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
737 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...
Little in the way of burning or fire weather concerns today. We
will have lower RH values today but with recent rainfall and the
greenup of fuels, there is little risk of fire danger today. A
cold front will enter the far Northwest late tonight/Tuesday
morning and precip chances will increase along the boundary. Also,
winds will be increasing and becoming Southerly in the morning
then turning more Westerly late in the day.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east 5 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 5100-6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38  32  20  10  8   8   10  13  14
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............53  56  58  61  62  63  65  67  67
RH..............68  62  58  53  51  48  45  42  42
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 5.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..N   N   N   NW  W   W   SW  SW  S
MIXNG WIND SPD..7   7   6   5   3   3   3   5   6
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......3700-5600 ft AGL decreasing to 300-2000 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........13     17     26     38     50     59
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............67     62     55     52     52     51
RH..............43     52     66     74     74     77
20 FT WIND......E 8    E 8    E 9    SE 12  SE 13  S 13
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     15     20
EYE LEVEL WIND..E 5    E 5    E 5    SE 7   SE 8   S 8
EYE LVL WND GST.10     10     15     15     15     20
MIX HGT (FT)....5600   3700   300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......S 7    SE 8   E 9    SE 10  SE 10  S 12
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until late afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. Slight chance
                    of rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 14 to 20 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 25 mph decreasing to 13 to 14
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........68        86        90        82
WEATHER COV.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                              S CHC
TEMP............50        55        62        67
RH..............80        77        72        65
20 FT WIND......S 15G25   S 18G30   S 18G30   SW 16G25
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 9G25    S 11G30   S 11G30   SW 10G25
MIX HGT (FT)....500       1100      2300      3900
MIXNG WIND......S 18      S 22      S 25      SW 17
HAINES INDEX....4         2         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Boksa
Requested by...Chad Loreth
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1706976.0/DMX
.EMAIL chad_loreth@fws.gov



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