Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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682
FNUS73 KDMX 201249
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Lake Red Rock...US Army Corps of Engineers
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
749 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on March 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

In the wake of a departing cold front, winds from the north or
northeast will average 10 to 15 mph and bring relatively cooler
and drier air into the state. Relative humidities, though, will
bottom out from the low 40 percent to the low 50 percent this
afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then shifting to the north 7 to
                    13 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then shifting to the north 7 to
                    13 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 12 mph shifting to the northeast 15
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........57  61  65  63  52  52  53  57  49  61
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............46  48  52  56  59  61  64  66  66  65
RH..............73  71  66  59  55  53  50  47  47  48
20 FT WIND DIR..E   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..5   7   9   12  13  13  13  13  13  12
20 FT WIND GUST.        10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
EYE LVL WND SPD.3   4   5   7   8   8   8   8   8   7
EYE LVL WND GST.        10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.1 3.8
MIXNG WIND DIR..NE  N   N   N   N   NE  NE  N   N   NE
MIXNG WIND SPD..6   7   9   12  15  17  18  18  18  20
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 7 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2200-3500 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1200 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 20 mph shifting to the north 6
                    to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........64     71     70     64     60     58
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62     56     49     45     43     40
RH..............52     59     74     76     76     82
20 FT WIND......N 10   N 8    N 8    N 8    N 8    N 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 6    N 5    N 5    N 5    N 5    N 5
EYE LVL WND GST.15     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3500   2200   300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......NE 20  NE 17  N 10   N 9    N 8    N 7
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain early in the morning, then chance of rain.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 4400-5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 12 mph increasing to 14 to 22 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........76        88        93        85
WEATHER COV.....S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............38        44        48        50
RH..............85        62        51        46
20 FT WIND......N 7G10    N 10G15   N 12G15   N 10G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 4G10    N 6G15    N 7G15    N 6G15
MIX HGT (FT)....300       1500      2500      4200
MIXNG WIND......N 6       NE 18     NE 17     N 14
HAINES INDEX....4         5         3         4

$$
Forecaster...Ansorge
Requested by...Nathan Seibert
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704643.0/DMX
.EMAIL nathan.r.seibert@usace.army.mil



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