Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 212155
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Elk Rock...Iowa DNR-USFWS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
355 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will be gradually shifting from midday Wednesday from the
southwest to west northwest by late afternoon as a trof axis
passes through the state. Low levels will be well mixed with
somewhat gusty conditions. Relative humidity values will range
from 25 to 35 percent during the afternoon.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................30 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 14 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 8 to 14 mph.
                    Gusts up to 25 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2800 ft AGL at
                    ignition...otherwise 2800-4100 ft AGL early in
                    the afternoon, then increasing to 4300-5400 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon decreasing to 3300 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   0   0   2   6
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............71  74  74  69  67
RH..............30  27  26  33  39
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..14  14  14  13  10
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  20  20  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  W   W   W
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   8   8   8   6
EYE LVL WND GST.25  25  20  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 4.1 5.4 4.3 3.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  W   W   W   NW
MIXNG WIND SPD..13  13  13  10  8
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 7 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2300 ft AGL decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........8      10     10     11     21     35
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............63     56     52     48     44     41
RH..............46     59     66     74     82     89
20 FT WIND......W 9    W 7    NW 7   NW 8   N 7    N 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10                   10            10
EYE LEVEL WIND..W 5    W 4    NW 4   NW 5   N 4    N 4
EYE LVL WND GST.10                   10            10
MIX HGT (FT)....2300   900    300    300    600    800
MIXNG WIND......NW 6   NW 6   NW 7   NW 7   N 8    N 9
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      5      4      4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain in the morning, then rain likely in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 54.
RH..................Min 59 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 9 to 16 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 16 mph increasing to 22 to 28 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........64        87        81        87
WEATHER COV.....S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY    LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............40        43        51        54
RH..............89        79        61        59
20 FT WIND......N 9G10    NE 12G15  NE 14G20  E 16G25
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 5G10    NE 7G15   NE 8G20   E 10G25
MIX HGT (FT)....800       1500      2200      2000
MIXNG WIND......N 8       NE 13     E 13      E 25
HAINES INDEX....4         4         3         2

$$
Forecaster...Cogil
Requested by...Casey Trine
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702589.0/DMX
.EMAIL casey.trine@dnr.iowa.gov


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