Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 181318
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST FORK-HERKE...IOWA DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
818 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE DEWPOINTS FALLING SOME THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD END UP
A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST WITH DAYTIME MIXING
OF DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 1 TO 3 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (500-22100 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   5   15  26  25  24  31  32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............57  61  63  64  65  66  67  67
RH..............49  41  36  32  31  30  30  29
20 FT WIND DIR..ESE SE  ESE E   E   ESE ESE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   3   3   3   3   3   5
20 FT WIND GUST.        5   5   5   5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.ESE SE  ESE E   E   ESE ESE SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   2   2   2   2   2   4
EYE LVL WND GST.        5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.2
MIXNG WIND DIR..NNE NNE E   E   SE  S   SSW SSW
MIXNG WIND SPD..3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 2 TO 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1000-24000 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........29     12     9      8      16     29
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............68     61     54     50     48     47
RH..............29     39     54     66     71     74
20 FT WIND......SSE 5  SSE 5  SE 6   SSE 6  S 6    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.                     10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..SSE 4  SSE 4  SE 4   SSE 4  S 4    S 4
EYE LVL WND GST.                     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....8100   5400   300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......SSW 2  S 5    SSE 6  SSE 5  SSE 5  S 6
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      4

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    5300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1100-16700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    POOR TO EXCELLENT (0-119200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........32        25        35        45
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............46        58        67        69
RH..............79        57        43        39
20 FT WIND......S 5G10    S 9G15    S 13G15   S 13G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 4G10    S 6G15    S 9G15    S 9G15
MIX HGT (FT)....300       4800      7700      7900
MIXNG WIND......M         M         M         M
HAINES INDEX....M         M         M         M

$$
FORECASTER...BEERENDS
REQUESTED BY...JARED ELBERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160518.WESTF.02/DMX


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