Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 241216
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for USACE - Lake Red Rock...US Army Corps of Engineers
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
716 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the state today
by mid to late morning. The wind should remain from the south much
of the morning however changes in direction may occur as the
precipitation approaches. North winds will arrive later today.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 3500-5100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 8
                    to 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........70  73  76  83  89  95  94  93  92  93
WEATHER COV.....                SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........                    CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
TEMP............60  61  65  68  68  69  69  69  68  67
RH..............65  65  56  51  51  52  53  57  61  63
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..9   10  14  14  14  13  12  9   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  20  20  20  15  15  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   6   8   8   8   8   7   5   4   4
EYE LVL WND GST.10  15  20  20  20  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.7 0.9 2.2 3.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
MIXNG WIND SPD..12  15  18  21  22  22  20  15  12  8
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 7 to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......2200-4100 ft AGL decreasing to 1800-2000 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 12 mph shifting to the northeast 14
                    to 17 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
SKY (%).........95           100          97
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY       DEFNTE       LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC        CHANCE
TEMP............66           58           56
RH..............63           80           90
20 FT WIND......SE 7         E 7          E 8G10
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 4G5       E 4G5        E 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....4100         2400         1800
MIXNG WIND......NW 6         N 15         NE 14
HAINES INDEX....2            2            2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers in the
                    morning, then rain showers likely in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 12 to 13 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 12 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......2000-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 17 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........97           98           95
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE       DEFNTE       LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
TEMP............50           48           50
RH..............96           83           80
20 FT WIND......NE 13G15     NE 13G20     NE 13G20
EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 8G15      NE 8G20      NE 8G20
MIX HGT (FT)....2000         2400         2400
MIXNG WIND......NE 18        NE 22        NE 18
HAINES INDEX....2            2            2

$$
Forecaster...Donavon
Requested by...Derek Murken
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705126.0/DMX
.EMAIL Derek.J.Murken@usace.army.mil


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