Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 231540
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR THORN VALLEY BRUSH PILE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
940 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CST ON FEBRUARY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50
PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 17.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 13
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4500-24800 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   4   3   5   4   4   4   5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............3   6   9   13  16  17  17  17
RH..............62  60  54  48  44  46  46  46
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   6   7   7   8   10  9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.                10      10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   5   5   6   7   6   6
EYE LVL WND GST.                10      10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2
MIXNG WIND DIR..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..5   5   6   7   9   10  12  13
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 12.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO FAIR (16900-22900 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).........9         12        14        28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............16        13        13        15
RH..............48        58        63        64
20 FT WIND......SW 8G10   SW 10G15  SW 15G20  SW 15G20
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 6G10   SW 7G15   SW 11G20  SW 11G20
MIX HGT (FT)....1900      1400      1100      900
MIXNG WIND......SW 14     SW 15     SW 18     SW 21
HAINES INDEX....4         4         4         4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (21500-73700 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........41           36           32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............18           25           31
RH..............67           71           69
20 FT WIND......SW 15G20     W 16G20      NW 17G25
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 11G20     W 11G20      NW 12G25
MIX HGT (FT)....1400         1800         3500
MIXNG WIND......SW 20        W 15         NW 20
HAINES INDEX....4            2            2

$$
FORECASTER...COGIL
REQUESTED BY...JIM KRIZMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150223.THORN.01/DMX


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