Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

000
FNUS73 KDMX 161415
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SENECA WILDLIFE...IOWA DNR-USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
915 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0915 CDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BUT NOT BE EXTREME.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 1 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 12
                    TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (300-59500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (79900-110600 KNOT-FT)
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........28  27  31  39  44  49  59  64  66  71
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............66  69  71  74  77  79  81  81  81  81
RH..............50  45  41  37  32  29  26  26  27  29
20 FT WIND DIR..W   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3   6   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.5       10  10  10      15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.W   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.2   4   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
EYE LVL WND GST.5       10  10  10      15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.2 3.0 4.7 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 7.7 7.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..6   7   7   6   6   7   9   12  15  17
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (29200-113300 KNOT-FT)
                    DECREASING TO POOR TO POOR (2000-3000 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........74     79     85     89     91     93
WEATHER COV.....       CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP............77     69     64     63     61     60
RH..............35     51     65     70     78     81
20 FT WIND......SE 10  SE 9   SE 9   SE 9   SE 7   SE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 7   SE 6   SE 6   SE 6   SE 5   SE 5
EYE LVL WND GST.15     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....7100   2500   300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......S 18   S 14   S 9    S 9    S 9    S 12
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...SMALL
REQUESTED BY...DUSTEN PAULUS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130516.SENEC.01/DMX